609 FXUS62 KMHX 192006 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 306 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong NW winds associated with building high pressure will usher in a very cold and dry airmass into the area over the weekend. The high will shift offshore Monday night and Tuesday allowing milder air to spread across the area Wednesday through late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday...Strong CAA continues overnight as an Arctic airmass builds into the region. Extensive instability stratocumulus currently across the region will dissipate this evening with the loss of heating resulting in clear skies, especially western areas. Gusts as high as 30-40 mph continue into early evening evening then will gradually diminish late tonight. Sub freezing temperatures are expected area wide tonight with lows in the mid 20s most areas except around 30 along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday...Arctic high pressure with a central pressure >1040 MB will continue to slowly build into eastern NC from the northwest on Sat. CAA will continue and result in high temperatures barely above freezing reaching only the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday... Sunday...Overnight Sat, lows will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far with most of the coastal plain forecast to be in the teens (20s OBX). With gusty NW flow, overnight wind chills will be in the single digits inland and low teens along the coast. Sunday will only be a tad warmer during the day before overnight lows drop back into the teens across most of the coastal plain. The OBX lows will be around freezing. Monday - Tuesday...Next week will bring light at the end of the cold tunnel as high pressure moves overhead. Although we'll be warmer Monday with highs in the mid to upper 40s, lows will still be below freezing for most of the coastal plain (low 40s beaches). The big jump in temperature comes Tuesday with highs in the low 60 for the entire FA. Wednesday - Friday...Heights increase as a mid-level ridge builds over the SE CONUS and the surface high pushes offshore. The pattern becomes warmer and wetter through the end of the week with highs surpassing climo (mid/upper 60s Wed, upper 60s/low 70s Thur & Fri). The column will moisten as SW flow brings in moisture from the Gulf sending Tds well into the 60s by Thursday. A surface low will move toward the area at the end of the week and bring the best source of lift, so have increased PoPs to chance for both Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... As of 240 PM Friday...VFR conditions with gusty winds will prevail across the TAF sites through Sat as arctic high pressure builds over the area. The strongest winds (out of the NW) will occur through early evening with gusts to 30 mph expected. Overnight gusts will diminish to around 15 mph, picking up to around 25 mph Sat. 4-5K ceilings late tonight will diminish early this evening with the loss of heating with skies becoming clear overnight through Sat. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 3 AM Friday...Pred VFR through the period with the only feature of note being gusty NW winds this weekend. Higher gusts will taper off Sunday. Winds remain light and VRB through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... As of 240 PM Friday...Gale Warnings are in effect tonight for the sounds and coastal waters for a strong NW surge of cold air into the Carolinas. NW winds 25-35 kt will diminish to 15-25 kt late tonight and to 10-20 kt for most of Sat. Seas will rapidly build peaking around 5-8 ft this evening, then begin to slowly subside to 4-6 ft after midnight. Seas will briefly subside to 3-5 ft on Sat. NW winds are forecast to increase again Sat night to 20-30 kt with seas building back to 4-7 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 3 AM Friday...Suboptimal marine conditions continue through the weekend with NW winds 20-25 kt (gusts to 30 kt) and choppy 3-6 ft seas. Winds and seas relax late Sunday becoming NW 15-20 kt and 3-5 ft. Seas decrease to 2-3 ft and winds (around 10 kt) become variable on Monday as high pressure moves offshore. By Tuesday, winds will be 10-15 out of the SW with seas building back to 3-5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ135-150-152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136-137. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...OJC/RJ AVIATION...JME/OJC MARINE...JME/OJC