018 FXUS64 KOHX 171658 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 A passing upper trough axis and approaching surface high are providing a reinforcing shot of cold air and allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below zero in many spots across Middle TN. Areas south of I-40 are seeing our coldest temperatures...around -6 to -13 in the coldest low lying areas. As this surface high moves east today, winds will turn out of the south. Sunshine and light southerly winds should help temperatures warm...but only into the mid to upper 20s. This should be enough to make some improvements to many of those snow covered roads. We'll dip back into the teens tonight and some refreezing will once again be possible. Thursday's weather continues to look interesting. Places south of I-40 and on the Plateau have the best chance of temperatures warming into the upper 30s to low 40s, and at the same time the warming is occuring we'll see precipitation move in from the west. Precip amounts are expected to be light (less than 0.25 inches), but there will likely be quite a variation in the type of precip that falls during the day on Thursday. Surface temperatures and temperatures aloft will both play an important role. Initially, models are pointing to warm air aloft allowing for rainfall, but in places where temperatures hover around freezing (which right now is mainly northwest Middle TN) precip may refreeze as it hits the ground. The opportunity for this should be shortlived and any ice accumulation would be very light. As we move through the afternoon hours, we should see temperatures aloft start to cool, leading to a mix of rain and snow. This mix may continue through the afternoon and into the evening as this wave moves across the Plateau. A transition to all snow is most likely across our northernmost counties. If that happens light snow accumulations of an inch or less may be possible. This is not the same type of setup as Sunday-Monday's snow event and we don't expect any significant snow accumulations at this time. Snow and rain will move off the Plateau Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 After Thursday night's frontal passage, temperatures will plummet as arctic air is pumped into the Tennessee Valley courtesy a few shortwaves in a strong upper trough. If you don't see above freezing temperatures Thursday afternoon, it'll be Sunday or Monday (more likely) before above freezing temperatures appear. This next spell of cold temperatures looks nearly as robust as the one we're experiencing tonight. Overnight lows are expected to reach the single digits both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Highs on Saturday may only top out in the teens. A warm up is on the way by early next week. We should see the pattern begin to shift on Monday as troughing over the eastern U.S. finally slides off the east coast. Much warmer temperatures are in store Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 40s and even 50s. We could finally see overnight temperatures warming to around the freezing mark by Tuesday morning...which would be a dramatic improvement. Of course with the warm weather comes rainfall...which enters the forecast Monday and sticks around through at least midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 We will see VFR conditions through the TAF period. Skies will remain clear into the overnight with high clouds moving in after 11z. Southerly winds under 10 knots. Rain/snow mix will move in after 18z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 31 16 38 23 / 0 0 90 70 Clarksville 31 16 34 20 / 0 0 70 40 Crossville 27 13 38 23 / 0 0 80 90 Columbia 31 17 38 23 / 0 0 80 50 Cookeville 26 15 38 23 / 0 0 90 90 Jamestown 27 14 38 22 / 0 0 90 90 Lawrenceburg 29 18 39 25 / 0 0 80 60 Murfreesboro 29 13 39 23 / 0 0 90 80 Waverly 30 18 35 20 / 0 0 70 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....Shamburger