193 FXUS62 KMHX 170843 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 343 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west today bringing a brief cold snap with temperatures well below normal. Moderating conditions expected Thursday with high pressure over the area, followed by a weak storm system moving through Friday. Another Arctic blast will follow behind this system this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...The Arctic front has moved well offshore overnight and high pressure will build in from the W today. Expect clear skies today once lingering stcu moves offshore early this morning. CAA will continue through the day with NW to W winds gusting up to around 15-20 mph. Temps will be 15-20 degrees below normal with highs around 35-40 degrees with wind chill values in the 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure will become centered over the area tonight with clear skies and light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows in the lower 20s across most inland areas, though could see upper teen in the typically colder locations, and mid to upper 20s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wed...Broad troughing prevails over the central and eastern US through the weekend. Second and colder arctic invasion will move into ENC this weekend with frigid air. A moderating trend will begin in earnest next week. Thursday...After a cold morning, high temps will moderate back to near climo, generally 50-55 region- wide. Winds will be light. Increasing clouds during the afternoon with next system set to move through overnight Thu into Fri. Friday...Transition day expected as next and colder arctic airmass will be set to move into the region for the weekend. Ahead of it, strong shortwave will pivot through the ern CONUS. For ENC, some sct light rain is possible with the passage of this system, though short duration return flow will mean limited moisture will be available. GFS cont a bit more robust with rain chances, though drier ECM and CMC hedged towards a continuation of 30-40% rain chances. Any precip that falls will be liquid during the day Fri, with wintry precip being confined w and n of ENC. Strong CAA Fri eve will shut off precip chances and limit any wintry weather. Fri night lows will bottom out solidly in the 20s, though a brisk wnw wind will make it feel like it's in the teens. Saturday-Sunday...Big story will be the frigid temps expected over the weekend. Coldest air mass of the season expected, as low level thicknesses plummet to ~1250M, translating to highs only in the low/mid 30s Sat, and lows well down into the teens. These values will be far from record lows, as this is the period which saw lows below zero for many areas in ENC in 1985. Sun AM will feature wind chills into the single digits above zero as a brisk NW breeze of 5-15 mph will be in place. While these values will remain above wind chill adv threshold, will cont to highlight the low wind chills in the HWO. Sunday will tack on a few degrees to high temps, though still only in the 30s. Monday...Another very cold morning Mon AM, as the arctic high will be settled right over ENC, and thus lows will outperform any available guidance. Dropped lows into the mid/upr teens as a result with clr skies and calm winds. A decent diurnal swing expected as highs rebound back to the 45-50 degree range with very light winds and sunny skies expected. Tuesday...Further moderation of the airmass expected as sfc high moves E of the region and offshore. Return flow brings warming thicknesses, and highs will rebound back to above climo, mid/upr 50s OBX to low 60s swrn zones under cont sunny skies and light winds. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Wednesday...The Arctic front has moved well offshore and high pressure will build in from the W today. Lingering stcu across rtes this early this morning is bringing patchy MVFR cigs but it will dissipate over the next couple of hours with clear skies with VFR conditions dominating through the short term. Could see NW to W winds gusts to around 15 kt at the TAF sites today and to around 20 kt along the coast. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...VFR expected through Thursday, and then there will be chances for sub-VFR conditions with the next storm system Friday, though precip chances will be low. Gusty WNW winds develop later Fri as arctic cold front moves in, with the gusty winds cont through Sat. The gusty winds will taper off during the day Sun. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure will build in from the west today with NW to W winds gradually diminishing throughout the day. NW winds currently around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will become W and diminish to around 10-15 kt this afternoon. A subtle tightening of the pressure gradients this evening will bring slightly stronger winds around 15-20 kt over most of the waters but then will diminish to around 10 kt or less late tonight. Seas currently around 5-8 ft across northern and central waters and 3-5 ft southern waters will subside to 3-5 ft north and 2-4 ft south by late this afternoon and tonight. Will drop SCAs as conditions warrant but expect all SCAs to end around mid afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Stronger SCA expected beginning Fri as stronger arctic surge blasts through, with WNW winds 20-30 kt expected, and SCA likely for the sounds and inland rivers as well. Winds will be WNW, so short fetch will build seas into the 5-7 ft range. A period of gales is possible later Fri afternoon through Fri night over the warmer and better mixed gulf stream waters south of Hatteras. Winds and seas begin to diminish on Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...SK/TL MARINE...SK/TL