204 FXUS64 KTSA 151617 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1017 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1017 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 A couple of regions of snow are ongoing across the forecast area and the main change to the going forecast has been to account for the trends in these areas. The first region has been ongoing most of the morning across primarily west central Arkansas. Radar and surface observations continue to indicate an easterly shift in the higher reflectivities and likely any additional accumulations. The current plan is to let the Winter Weather Advisory for these areas go at the existing expiration time of 11 am. Attention then turns to the batch snow along the Kansas border. Radar reflectivities at times have been high enough to support some accumulation potential and so POPs have been raised into the slight chance category into early afternoon, nearer to the 12Z NAMNest depiction, with flurries thereafter. Sky cover was adjusted upward a bit, with other elements adjusted merely for trends. Expect an additional update with the expiration of the Winter Weather Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 There will be enough increase in temp and decrease in wind during the day Tuesday to let the wind chill advisory go at noon. South winds pick up into Wednesday and temps will respond and finally climb above freezing for the first time since Friday night or Saturday. There is some indication in the EC and to a lesser degree the GFS and UKMET of the potential for warm advection showers across western AR and far eastern OK Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The signal isn't strong enough in the forecast area to include mentionable PoPs at this time, but this bears watching given some potential for wintry precip if it materializes. The cold front will slide quickly thru the region on Thursday night dry, but once again ushering in some pretty cold air into the region. Highs on Friday will be at or below freezing across much of the area, but it will be more short-lived this time. A pattern change into next week, with more troughiness in the Southwest, will lead to southerly low level flow, increasing moisture and a more unsettled weather pattern. Precipitation could spread into the region as soon as Sunday night or Monday morning. Sometimes cold air hangs on longer in northwest Arkansas before warm advection takes hold, meaning that precip could come in quicker than the cold air gets out and could yield wintry precip. For now, will indicate at rain/freezing rain mix for NW AR and surrounding areas at precip onset Sunday night and Monday morning. Eventually, precip should transition to all rain as temps climb above freezing. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Predominately a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions expected through the period. Currently expecting a period of reduced ceilings this afternoon/ evening for much of the area before lifting late in the period. Some light snow is possible this morning mainly for AR sites, though not expecting prolonged flight impacts from this activity. Additionally, light flurries are possible for N OK sites through this evening as an elevated front influences the region. However, this should remain limited in coverage and intensity, precluding mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 13 2 23 10 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 20 5 22 9 / 70 0 0 0 MLC 18 4 23 9 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 11 -2 23 7 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 14 -3 19 6 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 12 -1 19 8 / 60 0 0 0 MKO 14 2 22 10 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 10 -2 20 8 / 20 10 0 0 F10 14 4 23 11 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 23 7 26 12 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ069- 072-074>076. AR...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ001- 002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...43