638 FXUS64 KJAN 140522 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Weather conditions will remain quiet through tonight as global guidance continues to highlight a 1022mb sfc high across the southeast region. Cloud cover will start to build from the west as southerly winds start to shift to the north heading into the overnight period. Because of this, nighttime temperatures will struggle to radiate effectively across much of central Mississippi. Expect overnight temperatures to dip into the mid to upper 20s across the area. Heading into Sunday, quiet but colder conditions can be expected for much of the area. A longwave trough will continue to dig across the northern/central CONUS. At the same time, a shallow arctic airmass will continue to push southeast towards our CWA by Sunday morning. This will cause afternoon highs on Sunday to be very chilly with portions of the upper Delta region remaining below freezing. A fairly strong temperature gradient should exist with temperatures reaching the mid 50s over southeast portions of the area. /CR/ Sunday night through Tuesday night: Confidence is increasing that dangerous cold and significant winter weather will impact much of the forecast area during this time frame. A shortwave trough moving through the polar stream will incite precipitation development as it moves through the cold air in place. Much of this will initially be in the form of snow/sleet over northwest/northern portions of the area where significant frontogenetical forcing is expected, but as surface pressures lower and moisture is tapped from the Gulf of Mexico Monday, we will see light/moderate showers develop farther south over LA and eventually spread into central/southern MS, especially by late Mon afternoon/evening. Guidance varies a good bit concerning the exact timing for arrival of precip to the Natchez to Jackson to Columbus areas, so monitor for changes in this regard. Precipitation type forecasts are fairly confident, especially for where the snow will occur. Areas south of the snow line to roughly the I-20 corridor should mainly receive a mix of sleet/freezing rain, while a transition from rain to freezing rain should be most common in the Pine Belt region. With confidence increasing for at least light ice accumulation combined with arctic cold temperatures for central/southwest areas, the watch was expanded farther south, and much of the original watch was upgraded to a warning. Additional transitions to warnings/ advisories are likely as we approach the event, especially if trends continue for another wave of freezing rain develop late Mon night over southern areas. Much of the area will likely have hazardous to dangerous travel issues by Monday night into Tuesday morning, and this will be made worse by the potential for any stranded motorists to be vulnerable to dangerous wind chill readings. Expect the coldest temperatures and wind chill readings as we go from Tuesday through Wednesday morning, and have maintained the dangerous cold messaging for now in the graphics with temperatures likely remaining near/below freezing for most of the area and with lows getting down well into the teens central south to single digits north. Expect the need for hard freeze warnings (dangerous cold type) and wind chill headlines as we get closer to this time frame. Wednesday through Friday night: We should see most of the area get above freezing Wednesday afternoon as the airmass modifies, but most of the global model guidance indicated another surge of colder air likely by the end of the week. Ahead of the next surge, a weak system is likely to move across the forecast area with a brief period of moderating temperatures. We'll monitor this system however for perhaps some winter weather potential, especially for northern portions of the area. Otherwise, we could see another hard freeze situation develop Friday into the weekend as more arctic air pushes surges southward. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period with some high clouds across the area. Winds will start from the WSW at around 5 to 10 kts, then shift by daybreak (around 6 AM Sunday) from the north at around 5 to 10 kts. The onset of wintry precip across the far northeast will run into the tail end of the TAF period, and may see ceilings drop to MVFR levels at GLH./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 53 28 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 53 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 54 27 39 24 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 54 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 55 31 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 49 22 30 20 / 0 0 20 50 Greenwood 50 23 36 23 / 0 0 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040-041. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for MSZ029>033-037-042-047. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for MSZ038-039-043>045-048>050-053>055-059>062. LA...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for LAZ016-023>025. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for LAZ026. AR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/EC/SAS20