143 FXUS63 KGID 102211 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 411 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Weather Advisory in effect areawide from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Storm total snowfall of around a half an inch to over 5 inches is expected. - A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 12 AM Friday to 12 PM Friday areawide for wind chills as low as -25 degrees. - Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected through the weekend into early next week. A Wind Chill Watch is in effect areawide from Friday evening through Tuesday morning. Saturday night and Sunday night will be the coldest nights with wind chills ranging from -30 to near -45 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Today and tonight... An upper level trough is over the Central and Northern Plains with surface winds mostly out of the west to northwest across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. An area of snow showers is currently moving across portions of central and south central Nebraska. Little to no accumulation is expected with this snow. Today will be the last day for at least the next 7 days with temperatures near normal and above freezing. High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s to near 40. Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits to near 15 degrees. Thursday through Friday... Another upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Thursday. This trough will bring more snow across the area and will also bring in a very strong cold front with arctic air that will linger across the area. Light snow showers could start as early as Thursday morning but will more likely start Thursday afternoon with a 40 to 70 percent chance. High temperatures on Thursday will drop into the teens and twenties behind the cold front. Also, wind chills will start to drop into the negative digits on Thursday and are not expected to go above zero until Tuesday. The most snowfall will likely occur Thursday evening. Temperatures Thursday night will generally range from 5 to -5 degrees. Wind chill values Thursday night and Friday morning are expected to drop to the negative teens to negative 20s. Snow will start to taper off on Friday and is expected to be over by Friday evening. Storm total snow values will be highest in the eastern part of the forecast area with values ranging from 2 to over 5 inches. Values of near a half inch to three inches are expected in the western part of the forecast area. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the whole forecast area from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for the whole area from 12 am Friday through Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits and teens. Friday night through Sunday night... The arctic air continues with temperatures plummeting into the negative single digits Friday night/Saturday morning. Wind chill values during this time will generally range from -25 to -35 degrees. High temperatures on Saturday will mostly be in the single digits across north central Kansas and near zero to the negative digits across south central and central Nebraska. Low temperatures Saturday night plummet into the negative teens across most of the area. Very dangerous wind chills are expected Saturday night/Sunday morning with values ranging from around -30 to -40 degrees. High temperatures on Sunday are only expected to be in the negative single digits across most of the area with some places perhaps reaching zero degrees. Wind chill values of around -15 to -30 are expected during the afternoon on Sunday. The coldest night at this time looks to be Sunday night with lows in the negative teens areawide. Wind chill values during this time will range from -35 to near -45 degrees. A Wind Chill Watch is in effect for the whole area from Friday evening through Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance (15 to 35 percent) of snow showers between Friday night and Sunday night. Monday through next Wednesday... A slight warm up is expected on Monday with temperatures warming into the single digits for highs Monday afternoon. Wind chill values Monday afternoon will range from the negative single digits to -20 degrees. Low temperatures Monday night will range from near -9 to - 13 degrees with wind chills between -25 and -35. High temperatures on Tuesday will warm up into the teens with some lower 20s. Wind chills are expected to climb above zero for most areas Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the single digits. Wind chills Tuesday night are expected to be in the negative digits but will be above -20. High temperatures next Wednesday will mostly be in the 20s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Snow showers are expected this afternoon along with brief MVFR ceilings. Low ceilings are again expected tonight around 09z and will continue through the end of the period. Winds will be out of the west to northwest through this evening then will switch to the north to northeast at 09z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 623 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Perhaps several daily temperature records appear potentially threatened during our upcoming "Arctic blast" Friday-Monday at Grand Island/Hastings airports (our two primary long-term stations for which we issue formal Record Event Reports/RERs). A few of the records that appear MOST favored to MAYBE be threatened for Jan. 12-15 follow: -- Grand Island (GRI): Record cold lows: Jan. 14 (Sunday): current record -13 (1972) Jan. 15 (Monday): current record -14 (2005) Record cold highs/Max T: Jan. 13 (Saturday): current record 4 (1979/1912) Jan. 14 (Sunday): current record 1 (2005/1979) Jan. 15: (Monday); current record 4 (2005) -- Hastings (HSI): Record cold lows: Jan. 15 (Monday): current record -11 (1972) Record cold highs/Max T: Jan. 12 (Friday): current record 6 (2011/1974/1963) Jan. 13 (Saturday): current record -1 (1916) Jan. 14 (Sunday): current record 3 (2005) Jan. 15: (Monday); current record 6 (2005) && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight Thursday night to noon CST Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Tuesday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight Thursday night to noon CST Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019. Wind Chill Watch from Friday evening through Tuesday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt CLIMATE...Pfannkuch