555 FXUS65 KPIH 101015 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 315 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a departing H5 trough east of the Divide as yesterdays system works onto the Great Plains with strong winds and isolated to snow showers persisting especially further south and east. Blowing and drifting snow will be the main hazard today which with another round of snow expected later today, will continue to present travel impacts with respect to existing and new snow. Further to our NW, our next system has moved onshore to the PacNW and will bring an increase in coverage of snow throughout the morning hours with again the potential for snow squalls late this morning through the afternoon hours as a secondary cold front tracks through SE Idaho. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect to capture the final impacts of this second system until 5 PM MST Wed as winds and the coverage of snow begins to decrease after sunset. With respect to additional snowfall amounts through Wed night, look for another 1-4 inches in the valleys and 4-10 inches in the mountains with locally higher totals possible. Winds as mentioned above will continue to remain elevated with gusts areawide between 30 to 50 mph, locally stronger in that 50 to 60 mph range. Snow showers will continue overnight into Thu especially south and east of the Snake Plain as the strongest winds shift to being confined around the Magic Valley and valley drainages of the ERN CNTRL Mountains as cold air spills over the Divide. Coldest areas Thu morning will be in the single to double digits below zero further north with patchy areas of dense fog possible especially where winds remain light and skies see clearer conditions. Highs on Thu will be seasonably cool in the teens and 20s as mostly dry conditions prevail outside of isolated snow showers through the day as coverage increases by the afternoon and evening hours as out next system begins to build into the region out of the NW. Snow will then continue overnight Thu into Fri as a well established W/NW moisture axis continues with impacts into the weekend. MacKay .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. Are you getting tired of the snow yet? If so, the forecast through the weekend will not be kind to you. There does appear to be a potential break in the precip as we get into the early part of next week but things can still change with that. Before we get there though, we have to contend with a few more days of impactful winter weather. Friday continues to look like a very unpleasant day across eastern Idaho. Confidence continues to increase on seeing a very windy day across the region as a potent upper-level trough moves well to our north and into the Great Plains. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph looking increasingly likely across much of the lower valleys, locally higher in our more wind prone locales. Additionally, it will be snowing so widespread blowing/drifting snow will be a huge concern and Winter Weather headlines of some kind will likely be needed on subsequent forecasts. Winds do look like they'll diminish some as we move into Saturday but the greater discrepancy on that day will be just how much snowfall we see. There's a large spread in the QPF forecast from the models and their associated ensembles with the GFS certainly favoring a wetter solution. NBM totals have trended upwards because of this and now show a good 3-6 inches of new snow across many of our valleys on Saturday with 6-12 in the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands which would certainly warrant some headlines. Confidence in the QPF is currently low so this forecast will likely change but for now, will run with the NBM as it's still a few days away. As we get into Sunday, it looks like things will start to finally dry out as the snow machine may shut off. The drawback to this is that temperatures look to get increasingly colder. Monday AM lows will likely be near or below zero for much of the region, minus teens in the high county and daytime highs will only tops out in the single digits to lower teens. Things would slowly warm up a bit each day next week but still running well below normal. McKaughan && .AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday. Things are relatively quiet this morning on the precip front but this will be short-lived as our next round of winter weather will sweep through by mid-morning and continue for good 3-6 hour time window Wednesday before the snow subsides somewhat and becomes more showery in nature. Expect MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs with snow. Winds will remain breezy today although not quite to the extent of what we saw yesterday. Nevertheless, they could still be strong enough to create issues with blowing snow, especially at KPIH where it's been problematic during the overnight. Marginal VFR conditions may return later this afternoon or evening as snow subsides but some low clouds could return things to MVFR CIGs at KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ as we get into the overnight hours towards Thu AM. McKaughan && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ051- 053>066-072-073-075. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for IDZ052- 067>071-074. && $$