635 FXUS64 KMAF 050445 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1045 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 Little change for the short term forecast from the previous package. Will leave the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains unchanged. Upper level low will move across the area today and tonight moving the low clouds and light precipitation out of the area to the east by around midnight local time. Windy conditions across the higher elevations subside by early tomorrow morning. Drier air in combination with clearer skies allow Friday morning lows to dip closer to normal with near freezing temperatures over the Permian Basin and 20s across southeast New Mexico and the Marfa Plateau. Any precipitation that falls today and tonight will be minimal with no accumulations expected. The rest of the short term forecast is dry. Highs on Friday move closer to normal with clearer skies and westerly to northwesterly winds taking hold. Most areas reach into the 50s with 60s along the Rio Grande. Lows fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday night and into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 Models are consistent in the extended forecast period showing a zonal pattern sending several storm systems across the western United States and into the Great Plains. The next one is an open trough due to arrive on Saturday that will push a weak cold front into the Permian Basin. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees north of I-10 and hardly any effect will be seen south of I-10. Temperatures rebound Sunday before a stronger upper low reaches the South Plains on Monday. The track of the low center is expected to be too far north to bring any appreciable precipitation. There are slight chances of mixed precip in the far northern Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico, as well as the higher elevations in the Big Bend...no accumulations are expected. The low pushes a cold front through on Monday with very windy conditions both ahead of and behind the front. The direction of these storms systems is from the west, off the Pacific, and not south out of Canada so despite the strong and windy storm system Monday temperatures will not drop too far below normal. No models are showing a high amplitude buckling of the upper jet that would unleash arctic air south into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Temps warm the remainder of next week until the next modest front arrives around Thursday. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, with low clouds and fog tonight expected to stay to the east of MAF and FST. Southwesterly winds will shift to the west-northwest by 16Z-18Z and become elevated/gusty, with gusts to 20-25kt common through the afternoon. Gusts will diminish quickly by 06/00Z, with light winds thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 33 56 29 52 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 33 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 35 64 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 36 59 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 30 48 29 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 29 53 27 48 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 24 51 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 33 56 30 52 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 34 56 30 52 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 34 59 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...84