119 FXUS62 KFFC 050241 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 941 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 No major changes were made to the short term period. Read the discussion below to learn more about winter impacts. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 Wintry precipitation is possible for the far NE GA mountains starting Friday night. High pressure center will move overhead tonight and then into the Middle Atlantic states by early Friday. With the high center shifting eastward, a wedge is expected to build into northeast portions of the CWA tomorrow and tomorrow night. A low pressure system is expected to develop off of the SE coast of TX today and move east across the northern GOMEX and along the Gulf Coast through Friday night. This low pressure develops and tracks much further north than yesterday's system, resulting in significantly higher amounts of QPF. With the wedge in place across NE portions of the state, the potential for a wintry mix is high across the higher elevations. Forecast soundings for the NE portions of the state show a warm nose around 850 around 5-6 degrees. With temperatures at the surface near freezing and plenty of moisture in place, there is some potential for freezing rain. At the onset of precipitation in the northeast CWA Friday night, some light freezing rain could mix in with rain and/or sleet at times. The airmass within the wedge isn't arctic in nature, so temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 30s. Some light icing is possible on elevated surfaces. Outside of the wedge, all rain is likely. The 12Z NAM and some of the higher res temperature guidance has come in a few degrees cooler than previous runs. The NAM keeps the higher elevations in the lower to middle 30s much of the day tomorrow and then drops values into the lower 30s overnight. Some of the cooler overnight temps make it into Hall County. Will have to continue monitoring these trends. If the wedge ends up being stronger than forecast, some light wintry mix could make it a little further SW than currently forecast. Locally heavy rainfall and some isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly across areas south of Macon to Columbus. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 Highlights: -No significant changes in the long term forecast. -Rain will be coming to an end on Saturday with the next chance for rain and thunderstorms slated for Monday - Tuesday timeframe. Rain will be ongoing, particularly across the eastern portions of the forecast area at the start of the long term forecast (Saturday morning). As the Gulf Low departs east/northeast, rain will gradually come to an end. Clouds will likely stick around until another mid-level trough axis swings through the region late Saturday into Sunday. No additional precip is anticipated with this next wave at this time. The next chance for rain won't be until the start of next week (Monday into Tuesday). There still remains fairly strong consistently among models with regards to timing and development of this next system. A closed low is progged to develop east of the Rockies on Monday, digging eastward across the Southern Plains on Monday. This system looks to occlude going into Tuesday as it approaches the Ozarks and Mid-South Region. So what does this mean for us? Moisture will return to the region on Monday in the way of increasing cloud cover with rain chances beginning to increase Monday into Tuesday. Still a little early to hash out any specific details regarding severe or flooding potential as this is late Day 5 into Day 6 but given the consistently depicted strong dynamics of this system, sufficient lift and moisture maintained the chance for thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. As far as temperatures, with the wedge in place Saturday, temperatures across the northeast will remain on the cooler side. Made some edits to reflect this but temperatures may still be lower the currently forecast depending on how strong the wedge is at that time. Otherwise, forecast high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with forecast lows in the 30s and 40s. 07 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 Wind shift to the northeast is still expected tonight at 2-3z with skies staying clear until lower end VFR cloud decks start to build in tomorrow night ahead of the rainfall thats expected beginning as early as 03z tomorrow night. Patchy IFR CIGs can be expected as early as 03z through the end of the TAF period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High on wind shift. Medium on arrival timing of rain and IFR CIGS. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 27 50 34 49 / 0 0 100 70 Atlanta 30 50 36 53 / 0 0 100 50 Blairsville 23 43 31 48 / 0 0 100 80 Cartersville 26 50 35 52 / 0 0 100 50 Columbus 33 57 45 62 / 0 0 100 20 Gainesville 28 47 34 48 / 0 0 100 70 Macon 29 56 42 63 / 0 0 100 40 Rome 25 51 36 52 / 0 0 100 50 Peachtree City 28 52 37 56 / 0 0 100 40 Vidalia 32 59 48 69 / 0 0 100 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Hernandez