300 FXUS64 KSJT 042332 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 532 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning over New Mexico. Ahead of the upper low precipitation has developed from the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin up into the Panhandle, where snow is being reported. Meanwhile, extensive cloud deck has held temperatures in the 40s across the entire area. The upper low will move eastward across the Panhandle overnight and into northern Oklahoma Friday morning. Associated precipitation shield will move across the CWA tonight, with rain chances quickly ending from west to east after midnight. As the previous forecast noted, rainfall amounts will remain light, with most areas seeing a tenth of an inch or less. We could also see some patchy fog development once again overnight. The upper low will lift off to the northeast of the region on Friday. West-northwest winds will take hold in the afternoon, with much drier air moving into the area. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 Looks like a active weather pattern setting up across much of the CONUS through late next week, how much west central Texas will be in the main action is still uncertain. Quiet weather for this weekend and then a much stronger upper level trough and surface low will move in the central and southern Plains(around 996 MB eastern Oklahoma on 09/00Z) early next week. Looks like west central Texas will be on the warm and mainly dry side of this system so a low to medium chance of showers and a few thunderstorms for Monday. Rainfall amounts will be light. Also, this system will bring a cold front through the area with windy conditions Monday night and Tuesday with a medium chance of wind chill values in the teens by Tuesday morning. In addition a few ensemble members(GFS/ECMWF) are indicating a few hours of light snow across the northern Big Country Monday night and Tuesday morning associated with the deformation zone on back side of the upper level storm system. Right now, looks like the better potential for winter weather will be north across Oklahoma and the Central Plains. There is a medium chance(30 to 50%) of a dusting of light snow north of I-20 early Tuesday morning, but no significant impacts are expected at this time. Temperatures will remain around or slightly above normal through the long term. The teleconnections is indicating a much colder pattern developing across the much of the CONUS by mid to late January. How far south the arctic airmass gets to our area is still somewhat uncertain. The operational global models and some ensemble members are indicating the leading edge of the arctic airmass will possibly be in the Southern Plains(Texas/Oklahoma) by mid January. Will keep watching and stay Tuned! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 Generally IFR to MVFR ceilings continuing with rain chances from now through about 06Z. Ceilings should start to improve after 06Z and this trend should continue for most places through the remainder of the night. Northwest winds should pick up by 18Z tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 38 56 29 54 / 80 0 0 0 San Angelo 37 60 30 58 / 40 0 0 0 Junction 38 61 30 62 / 50 0 0 0 Brownwood 38 59 30 56 / 90 0 0 0 Sweetwater 37 55 31 52 / 90 0 0 0 Ozona 35 59 30 58 / 20 0 0 0 Brady 40 59 32 58 / 70 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...SK