662 FXUS66 KLOX 312034 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1234 PM PST Sun Dec 31 2023 .SYNOPSIS...31/1152 AM. A series of storms will bring periods of light to moderate rain and mountain snow to the area through the week, strongest on Wednesday. Large ocean waves will continue to lower through Monday, but will peak again Wednesday Night and especially Sunday of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal, coldest on Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...31/1211 PM. The next in a series of storms will impact the area into early New Years Day Monday. The core of the storm, currently 400 miles west of Santa Barbara, will stay off the coast as it swings into northern Baja later tomorrow. This track, along with a lack of moisture, will keep impacts to a minimum over our area. The heaviest rainfall will stay off the coast, with generally light showers all we will see from this. Any area that receives rain will generally stay under 0.10 inches, with a local amount to 0.25 inches possible. Those showers however will be focused on tonight, which could dampen any outdoor New Years festivities and create some locally slippery roads. Any New Years Day activities, including famous flowery parades, may be a little damp to start but not seeing any showstoppers. Winds will stay light, with the strongest gust in the area likely staying under 30 mph. Quiet conditions to follow Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Light offshore flow with a slightly warmer and recovered air mass will bring temperatures closer to normal during the day, with highs generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. With the lack of cloud cover and drying air, night temperatures will become chilly quickly after sundown with lows between 35 and 45 common. The next storm system remains on target to impact the area as early as Tuesday evening and as late as Thursday afternoon. A more traditional cold front will sweep down the coast Tuesday Night into Wednesday, then the core of the low pressure system itself will move through southwest California Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a fair amount of consistency between the various projections (EPS GEFS CPC). Rain is nearly certain for all areas, with moderate confidence in totals generally ranging between 0.50 and 1.00 inches. 1 to 2 inches is likely for the mountains/foothills and northwest San Luis Obispo County. This type of rain usually brings delays on roads and outdoor events, but flooding issues are minimal. There are about 10 percent of the projections showing double those amounts, but the consensus falls in that range. This will likely be the coldest storm of the season, especially as the core moves through Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels will start around 5000 feet, but should lower to near 4000 feet Thursday morning. 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected for elevations about 5000 feet, with a 20 percent chance of 1 to 2 inches of snow down to 4000 foot elevations which would include the Interstate 5 Tejon Pass/Grapevine. Plan for mountain road delays with a small but present threat of closures. The air looks moderately unstable after the front passes through, with a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms anywhere. The winds are a bit tricky, with periods of breezy southeast winds at lower elevatations and gusty southwest to west winds over the mountains. Temperatures will unsurprisingly be cold during the day, with highs in the 50s common, but overnight lows will be moderated by the cloud cover and moisture. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...31/1224 PM. For Thursday's conditions, see short term section above. Following our midweek storm, quiet conditions should settle in for Thursday Night through Friday Night. Daytime temperatures will rebound to the mid 50s to mid 60s, with chilly night temperatures returning. Freezing temperatures are possible for the interior areas and coldest coastal valleys. The next storm window takes us to the next weekend (Sat-Mon Jan 6-8). A rather large low pressure system will move through the western states. About half of the projections keep it west enough to bring rain and mountain snow to the region (albeit with less amounts compared to Wednesday's storm). The other half keep it to the east (inside slider) resulting in rain-free and potentially strong north winds. Will have to keep an eye on this, especially as it pertains to enhancing or dampening our next big ocean swell slated to arrive on Sunday. && .AVIATION...31/1942Z. At 1814Z at KLAX, there was no marine nor inversion. Moderate confidence in most TAFs, high confidence in desert TAFs. IFR-MVFR conds possible through 22Z. Slight chc of light showers through the period. There is a 30% chance of LIFR conds for KPRB, KSMX, and KSBP, and high MVFR conds for all other coast/valley TAFS 03Z-17Z. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Slight chc of occasional light showers through the period. There is a 30% chc of BKN025-035 06Z-18Z Mon. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 7 kt. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Slight chc of occasional light showers through the period. There is a 30% chc of BKN025-035 06Z-18Z Mon. && .MARINE...31/1223 PM. Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast through Tuesday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Higher confidence in the wind forecast relative to seas. For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas will continue to subside and finally drop below advisory levels this evening. There is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA level northwest winds in the vicinity of Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island on Monday evening. Otherwise, winds and seas should be below SCA levels through Tuesday afternoon. Then a storm system will sweep the area, bringing a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of widespread SCA winds and seas between Tuesday evening and Thursday night. Another very large swell could affect the coastal waters next weekend with swell heights between 15 and 25 feet and periods around 14 seconds. Inside the southern California bight, seas are still at SCA levels, so have extended the advisory to this evening, however, seas may drop below advisory levels earlier in the afternoon. Conditions should be below SCA levels this evening through Tuesday evening, but there is a small (10-20 percent) chance of local SCA level wind gusts nearshore on Monday morning. Then a storm system will sweep the area, bringing a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of widespread SCA winds and seas between Tuesday evening and Thursday night. Another large swell could affect the inner waters next weekend with swell heights between 8 and 15 feet and periods around 14 seconds. && .BEACHES...31/1223 PM. The large and long period swell will continue to subside through today, finally dropping below 10 feet by this evening. Advisory level surf will remain through this evening with continued strong rip currents. Caution is strongly advised for beach goers. As for coastal flooding, the height of highest tides is diminishing with each cycle; however, due to high surf and existing damage to coastal infrastructure, coastal flood advisories remain in effect through this evening. Elevated to high surf is expected through this week, however surf heights will be much lower than these past few days. Elevated surf near or just below advisory levels is expected Monday and Tuesday. Starting Wednesday, advisory level surf is possible for the Central Coast and Ventura County Coast. Early model projections are highlighting another period of potentially damaging surf for next weekend with heights potentially ranging between 10 and 20 feet along the southwest California coast. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Kittell AVIATION...Lund MARINE...Hall/Lund BEACHES...Hall/Lund SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox