056 FXUS62 KMHX 312025 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 325 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to push south tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A mainly dry front will move through late Monday into early Tuesday with high pressure transiting the area Tuesday through Wednesday. A low pressure system will lift off the coast Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds into the late in the week with a stronger low pressure system impacting the are next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday...An upper low will continue push Ewd across the southern Great Lakes tonight while opening up into a positively tilted trough. Meanwhile, the attendant sfc low moves into the central Mid-Atlantic and trailing cold front moving into the western piedmont by 12z. Generally clear skies expected to prevail through the evening but will begin to see increasing high clouds after midnight as the frontal system approaches. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow for temps to fall quickly this evening but thickening high clouds and light mixing will keep temps several degrees warmer than this morning with lows in the mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...The upper trough will continue to push toward the area Monday with the attendant cold front moving across ENC through the afternoon. The initial frontal passage will be dry. Lower clouds develop after fropa but the cloud layer will be fairly shallow with saturation remaining below the DGZ and dry sub-cloud conditions so not anticipating any appreciable precip until possibly Monday night with the passage of the upper trough, with best chances across NE sections. Weak WAA ahead of the front will be offset by cloud cover and expect highs in the mid 50s again Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0330 Sunday...The next cold front crosses the area early this week with cool high pressure briefly taking control ahead of the first of multiple southern stream waves to impact the FA Thurs with another the latter half of the upcoming weekend. Monday night through Wednesday...The forecast turns more unsettled at the start of next week as the next upper low and cold front cross the Carolinas on Monday night/Tuesday. Some scattered, light rain is possible Monday evening into the overnight with limited lift in place, but more developed cells with heavier rain-rates seem less likely with not a lot of moisture in place and nocturnal timing of FROPA. Greatest chance for appreciable precip resides along the coast and offshore. Another brief calm period in the wake of the cold front Tue and Wed with mostly clear skies and slightly below normal Ts; MaxT in the low 50s, lows near freezing Tues AM, mid-upper 20s inland, upper 30s OBX Wed AM. Late Wednesday and Thursday...Potential for first round of storm systems developing mid to late week continues to increase as model consensus grows in regards to the development of a Miller A Low. Minute differences still exist in track of the low but the latest suite consensus is trending toward the more offshore track. Locally in ENC, this would further remove the SFC low from the trough aloft, not deepening it as much as earlier solutions suggested, and a decreasing trend in QPF. The Canadian, which was the much more aggressive solution 24hr ago, has come in line with the GFS/EURO track and depth. Overall, the story remains the same: rain LKLY after midnight Wed night through much of the day Thurs, particularly along the coast, as the low deepens along the front offshore. Expecting models to continue to improve and hone in on exact track and have a better hold on this timeframe come early next week when Wern CONUS soundings begin sampling the mid/upper level feature as it approaches the Great Plains. Although the offshore track tends to be better for chances of seeing snow here in ENC, temps in the lower half of the column do not support seeing any changeover to wintery precip locally. Friday and Weekend...Strong high pressure builds over the FA at the SFC in the wake of the departing low Fri, sliding offshore late Saturday. Another Sern stream low develops off the Gulf Saturday, crossing over AL/GA Sern CONUS Saturday evening. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /Monday/... As of 130 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High pressure will be suppressed to the south tonight as a cold front approaches from the NW. Generally clear skies will prevail through this evening but will see an increase in mid and high clouds late tonight into Monday morning. The front will push across rtes Monday afternoon and will see lower clouds develop behind the front but guidance keeps cigs above 3k ft. Winds will be light SW around 10 kt or less ahead of the front, then will become NW after FROPA. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 2 PM Sunday...A cold front will push well offshore early in the evening with the upper trough pushing across the area Monday Night/Tuesday, which is expected to bring some showers and stronger winds which could bring periods of subVFR flight cats due to decreased CIGs, but mainly near the coast. Typical threat for fog and post frontal strato cu in mornings behind the front. Next best chance for subVFR flight cats Thurs and Fri as an area of low pressure passes offshore increasing cloud coverage and showers. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 630 AM Sunday...A cold front will approach the waters through mid-day morning the pushes across the waters during the afternoon into early evening hours. SW winds around 10-15 kt expected ahead of the front except for the coastal waters south of Hatteras where better mixing will allow for 15-20 kt winds. Could see some gusts up to 25 kt south of Hatteras but not expected to be frequent enough to warrant a SCA tonight. Seas around 2-4 ft this afternoon builds to 3-5 ft across the waters south of Hatteras where stronger winds will prevail. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A cold front will cross regional waters late Monday, turning winds sharply NWerly behind it. Strong post frontal surge of NNWerly winds Tues as high pressure builds in, with SCAs expected for all coastal waters and PamSound. Winds relax and back through Tues night and Wed ahead of the next system to impact area waters Thurs with SCAs likely again due to strengthening NWerly flow on the backside of the departing low. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SK/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB