845 FXUS61 KILN 291808 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 108 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A broad upper level low pressure system will slowly move through the region through tonight, bringing repeated, periodic rounds of patchy light precipitation. Temperatures will trend cooler through early next week, with near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Very light rain and drizzle can be found over the region in a very patchy nature. Due to it falling out of a low deck below 2kft, it's not being picked up on NWS radar but is noted on TDWR to some extent. This light precip will continue tonight and end from nw-se overnight and early Saturday morning. Broad scale lift occurring over the region today will move east this afternoon and evening with the l/w trough. Mechanism for the persistent light precip will then turn to the lingering lower moisture profile. A thermal trough will cross from northwest to southeast through the CWA early Saturday and mark the end of any precipitation, which at that time should be primarily snow with some drizzle mixed in. Highs today and lows tonight will be separated by only a handful of degrees, with a very slow drop from the upper 30s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The SHRASN activity will drift to the S/SE, and eventually out of the area, after daybreak Saturday, with perhaps a few lingering flurries through the afternoon. However, drier conditions will prevail for most spots late in the day as clouds attempt to clear from the NW. Highs will top out in the lower 40s once again amidst light NW sfc flow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A sharp mid-level disturbance will drop southeast out of the Upper Midwest Saturday night, approaching the Ohio Valley by Sunday afternoon. This will cause a quick-moving cold front to push through our area. While some guidance is relatively dry (to include the GFS), there is decent agreement amongst other guidance that some light snow could accompany the disturbance Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Based on scant QPF, any accumulations will likely be limited to a couple tenths and be focused with the best energy along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Precipitation will exit to the east on Monday as the 500mb trough axis exits to the east, then some mid-level ridging builds in for Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring high temperatures back just above normal with a return to dry weather. Next chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as another disturbance moves into the region. There is plenty of uncertainty as to the depth and path of this system... but for now have focused the best chance of rain/snow to the south and east. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Drizzle and light snow falling in patches over the region this afternoon will continue through the bulk of the evening and overnight, more miss than hit at any one terminal. MVFR cigs will drop to IFR, and vsbys in precip and then patchy fog overnight will become more MVFR than not. Lower level 850mb trough weakens this evening and follows the upper l/w trough exiting southeast. Precip over the region will be most likely early tonight and cross nw-se. Behind it, a relative lull but some lingering drizzle and mist is expected through the night. The trailing thermal trough crosses early Saturday and will denote the best chance for a change to all snow for a brief period before ending. Cigs will become higher end MVFR, possibly VFR late tomorrow morning in the wake of the thermal trough as it provides a brief period of warm advection in the lower atmosphere. Otherwise, the blanketing low clouds will persist over the region for the next 24-36 hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs, with MVFR VSBYs, likely Sunday night into Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks