572 FXAK69 PAFG 282253 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 153 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low slowly spins out to the northwest while a new upper level low pushes into the Bering Sea. Weak ridging continues to build over eastern Alaska. Cold temperatures persist over the Interior before a shortwave disturbance brings back more mild air and a chance for light snowfall into the weekend. The strong low in the Bering throws several shortwaves up the West Coast this weekend and into next week which will bring periods of strong winds and areas of snowfall. && .DISCUSSION... Synoptic Analysis and Forecast... An upper level cut off low over the Bering Sea and into the Bering Strait slowly slides to the northeast, dragging some squally snow showers over the northern Bering Sea and Seward Peninsula. Light snow continues to fall over portions of the West Coast and Seward Peninsula with a front pushing off, leaving clear skies and quiet conditions elsewhere. Fairly cold temperatures persist in the Interior with stout inversions over the valleys. An upper level low is spinning its way over the Aleutians bringing areas of clouds and snow showers into the YK Delta and northern Bering Sea. Weak ridging has begun to push into eastern Alaska while some troughing builds in the Gulf of Alaska, dragging a low pressure system out of the south. This southerly system will initially be stalled by ridging, but get an extra assist by the flick of the jet stream and a push from the incoming system over the Aleutians such that it will lift as an upper level shortwave through the Interior Friday night into Saturday, while the deepening low in the southern Bering nears the mainland. This Bering low should then begin to throw shortwaves into Mainland Alaska with accompanying weak surface low pressure that will bring snow and strong winds to the West Coast through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior... Passing squalls continue to meander up the West Coast with on/off snow showers briefly reducing visibility. Easterly winds also continue, exacerbated by flow down into Norton and Kotzebue Sound. These should steadily dissipate in severity and coverage through through this afternoon and evening and conditions become fairly quiet into the beginning of the weekend. The West Coast could see some snow showers return overnight into Sunday. An increasing pressure gradient into the weekend will likely increase easterly winds late Friday into Saturday with gusts 25 to 35 mph for coastal locations, except higher for St. Lawrence Island and Point Hope with gusts in excess of 40mph possible. Winds should decrease slightly into Sunday as the chance for snow showers increase. There could be some overlap of falling snow and elevated winds that would necessitate the need for Winter Weather Advisories. Central and Eastern Interior... Cold temperatures persist, with hourly fluctuations based on sky cover and whatever little puff of wind manages to reach the ground. Under high pressure, the Interior will likely stay well below zero through the end of the week before beginning to warm into the weekend. A shortwave pushing up Saturday should bring some light snow to the Interior with light accumulations possibly enhance by upslope flow along the south side of the Brooks Range. Most models agree this snowfall should reach into the Central Interior as well. Areas around Fairbanks should see an inch or two, and then higher amounts are expected to the east and north. This setup is very similar to the burst of snowfall we saw a couple days ago, and if similar SLRs are realized (30:1), some higher end amounts up to 6 inches could be possible for areas from Fort Yukon to Arctic Village to Bettles. Additionally some stronger northeast winds up to 25-30 mph could be possible over the Dalton Highway which may lead to some blowing snow. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed. North Slope and Brooks Range... Quiet conditions and colder temperatures return late week and into the weekend as a front pushes off into the Arctic Sea. Some fog is possible. A front pushing over the eastern Brooks Range Saturday into Sunday should bring the next chance for some snow with light accumulations through Sunday. Cold air lingers longer on the North Slope before warmer temperatures aloft finally push into the region into early next week. Extended Forecast Days 4-8... A shortwave digs up the West Coast Monday as a deep upper level cut off low pushes over the Aleutians. Off of this new area of upper level low heights, shortwaves will likely be thrown into the Gulf of Alaska. At the same time an upper level ridge (or possibly upper level cut off high) forms over the Arctic Ocean. This should bring a powerful system into the West Coast with moisture transport into the western Alaska Range and strong southerly winds along the West Coast. Meanwhile on the northern coast, strong offshore winds could make it towards land, impacting areas from Barter Island to Barrow. Currently Euro guidance shows that sustained gale-force winds and gusts in excess of 60mph out of the east are possible along the Beaufort Sea Coast from Barter Island to Utqiagvik Tuesday and Wednesday. Then on the West Coast gusts at least in excess of 40-45mph are possible from a similar direction, especially through the Norton and Kotzebue Sounds and into St. Lawrence Island. In both places, depending on the current ice pack, this could lead to moving ice sheets which would then be mobile to come back into shore if given an onshore wind direction. Will be keeping a close eye on this system, as it could be impactful. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-806-807-856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850. Gale Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854. && $$