996 
FXUS65 KFGZ 261928
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1228 PM MST Tue Dec 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge pattern will continue to build along the
California coast and gradually move inland. As a result, a slow
warming trend will occur throughout the week. There is a potential
for cooler and unsettled weather to return around the New Year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Tonight...High pressure builds into the southwest
from the Pacific, resulting in warming temperatures this afternoon
mainly from the Mogollon Rim and southward. To the north across the
Navajo Nation however, afternoon temperatures will struggle to get
out of the 30s F to low 40s F. Mainly light northwest through northeast
winds are expected today, although across the higher terrain (San
Francisco Peaks, White Mountains, Bradshaw Mountains and the 
Chuska Mountains) locally gustier winds around 35-45 mph will be 
possible.

Wednesday through Friday...As heights continue to rise over Arizona, 
temperatures warm a couple degrees or so each day with highs around 
5 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Guidance continues to 
keep the storm track off the Pacific largely aimed at the Pacific 
Northwest and Northern California, thus dry conditions are expected 
to continue over Arizona. For most, winds will continue to remain 
light through the week, with only locally gusty winds will be 
possible on and around the mountain peaks.

Saturday through Monday...By the weekend, ensemble guidance shows 
the ridge beginning to break down and shift east. This may allow for 
a brief shot at some colder air and potentially precipitation. The 
GEFS and CMCE have trended a bit more in favor of some precip, while 
the EPS still remains a bit more optimistic. Nevertheless, QPF among 
any of the members look to be fairly light. Thus, anything that does 
result from this system is not expected to cause any impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 26/18Z through Wednesday 27/18Z...VFR 
conditions expected through the TAF period. Light northerly winds 
less than 10 knots except downwind of the higher terrain where 
winds will be 10 to 20 knots through 00Z. 

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/18Z through Friday 29/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the outlook period. Light north to east winds 
less than 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry with warming 
temperatures each day. Northerly light winds between 5 to 15 mph. 
Afternoon RH values upper teens-mid 20s on Wednesday, increasing to 
low 20s-low 30s on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry, with daytime temperatures above normal. 
Light north to east winds between 5 to 15 mph. Increasing afternoon 
RH values from low 20s-mid 30s on Friday to mid 30s-mid 40s by 
Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff