629 FXUS64 KMAF 211137 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 537 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 The increase in moisture is even more apparent this morning than the past few mornings, with an increasing expanse of low clouds, as well as a few showers moving across the area. The showers have developed in response to a shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft that continues to translate northeastward over the area, with the best chance for showers shifting eastward to the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by midday. Latest water vapor imagery indicates an impressive fetch of subtropical moisture streaming over the region ahead of a large closed low off of the Southern California Coast, with little change in the overall pattern expected locally over the next 36 hours, even as the low begins to pivot over northern Baja through Friday. After today's shortwave exits to the northeast, dry conditions are then expected tonight and Friday. As far as temperatures are concerned, persistence rules, with temperatures progged to remain above normal. Highs today and Friday look to top out in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees for most, and lows tonight in the middle 30s northwest and in the mountains to the lower 50s east. According to the calendar, today is the first day of winter. But, if you step outside, you'll likely think, "could've fooled me". JP && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 The most active weather throughout the long term will be on the front end as an upper trough lifts from Baja through northern New Mexico/Colorado on Saturday. With low level return flow in place ahead of this system in addition to moist southwesterly flow aloft, a fairly moist profile is the result for mid-late December. Marginal instability (500-600 J/kg) is anticipated owing mostly to the trough providing somewhat steep lapse rates. What appears to be increasingly likely is a broken line of thunderstorms developing on Saturday afternoon, pushing eastward out of our area by late Saturday evening. Uncertainty still remains in how far west these storms can initiate and the extent of the coverage, though the greatest chances are found across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. As the thunderstorms push through, a brief burst of rainfall is possible if one passes overhead. Severe weather is not expected though some very small hail may fall out of the the strongest thunderstorm cores. Once these storms depart late Saturday, drier air quickly funnels in and the remainder of the long term is bone dry. Temperatures stay near to above average for the weekend but as the large upper trough swings through, a strong cold front is set to push into the region late Sunday into Monday. This brings much cooler weather in just in time for Christmas morning with temperatures in the 30s to start the day. Moving through mid week, weather stays cool and quiet with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 A mixed bag of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected this morning, with localized MVFR ceilings and fog across the area. Have included MVFR mention at MAF and HOB this morning, and will monitor and amend as needed elsewhere. Light showers are also possible, especially this morning, with VFR conditions returning areawide between 15-18Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions prevail, with light and somewhat variable winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 47 65 50 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 39 65 45 / 0 0 0 30 Dryden 67 50 68 54 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 68 45 71 52 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 43 62 45 / 0 0 0 40 Hobbs 64 39 65 45 / 10 0 0 20 Marfa 64 36 67 41 / 10 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 64 47 65 50 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 65 47 65 51 / 20 0 0 10 Wink 67 44 67 50 / 20 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...84