393 
FXUS63 KGLD 190842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) 
Issued at 131 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023

Current 500 mb analysis has a trough over Appalachia and a broad 
upper level ridge situated over the western 2/3 of the country, 
centered near the Continental Divide, allowing a west to slightly 
southwest flow over the area. Nighttime microphysics imagery shows 
high level cloud cover continuing to filter across the area from the 
west. 

With ample moisture available ahead of a surface trough, looking for 
a brief period of freezing fog and associated visibility reductions, 
slick spots to develop across east-northeast portions of the area 
this morning, between ~10-16Z. With temperatures climbing into the 
middle 50s to mid-upper 60s today, a few record highs have potential 
to be tied or broken (see Climate section below). Min RH this 
afternoon is expected to fall into the 12-20% range across locations 
generally along/west of Hwy 25, so a brief period of elevated fire 
weather conditions is possible; however, winds will be the limiting 
factor with max gusts out of the northwest forecast in the 15-20 mph 
range.

A few shortwaves moving through the flow during the short term 
period will have the area under a generally west-southwesterly flow 
before veering northwesterly Thursday evening-Thursday night as a 
shortwave ridge approaches. Above normal temperatures with highs in 
the 50s and 60s and lows generally in the 20s and 30s are expected 
to continue, along with bouts of mid to high level cloud cover. 
Wednesday afternoon-evening into Thursday morning may see some 
increase in clouds at lower levels, especially across our eastern 
areas as Gulf moisture is drawn up between an 850 mb low centered 
just to our south-southeast and an 850 mb high centered over the 
southeast CONUS. With this increased moisture, areas east and 
southeast outside of the CWA - portions of southwest, central, and 
eastern Kansas - expect to receive some rain. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 1242 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023

For the long term period, the main focus is on the potential weather 
system that would bring precipitation to the area during the 
Christmas holiday.

Friday and Saturday are still forecasted to be relatively dry and
warm in the wake of upper ridging aloft with surface high 
temperatures in the 50's and 60's. Saturday may become a 
transition day depending on how fast upstream upper features move 
into the area.

Late Saturday and through the Christmas holiday, guidance continues 
to suggest that an upper low over the Southwest CONUS and an upper 
trough from the northwest will move over the Plains. The tracks and 
timing remain uncertain with solutions ranging from warm and dry 
conditions continuing to impactful winter storms moving through. 
With little change in ensemble probabilities and potential outcomes, 
am currently leaving the forecast alone with a bit of rain across 
the area, seasonable temperatures and maybe some snow mixing in 
during overnight hours (nuisance impacts). The higher impact threats 
continue to remain low chance (around 5% each) and include low end 
flooding, low end severe and heavy snow accumulations. We'll see how 
the upper low develops in the next few days and what guidance will 
be suggesting then. When the system does clear the area, a gradual 
warming is forecasted for the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Mon Dec 18 2023

VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast for the TAFs. LLWS is no
longer a concern at KGLD, but will continue to be an impact at
KMCK. Data is continuing to indicate fog development west of KMCK
after 12z. The worst fog may be around 15z, then end.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 131 AM MST Tue Dec 19 2023

Record highs are possible this afternoon. Below are the current
records and forecast highs for select sites. *A + indicates the 
record has occurred on multiple years.
			
          Record (Year)   Forecast
Goodland:   66   (1917)      66 
Burlington: 70   (1979)      67 
Yuma:       65   (1941)      66 
McCook:     63   (1966+)     62

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...CC