254 
FXUS63 KFGF 181943
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
143 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a high probability (90+% confidence) in above normal
  temperatures through the work week.

- There is a low probability for precipitation impacts Christmas
  Eve to Christmas Day, however confidence in impacts (for
  severity and if we see any impacts) is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Southerly flow will increase throughout the day today allowing 
for solid warm air advection and temperatures to remain elevated
overnight tonight. Upper ridging will move eastward through the
early week, allowing for above normal temperatures through the
week.

As the ridge flattens midweek, there may be the potential for a
very weak shortwave to get some precipitation, but the
probability of this occurring is very low (so low that the NBM
hasn't even picked it up and it's blended out). Still, should
precipitation arise, impacts will be limited due to limited
amounts of precipitation.

Towards Christmas Eve/Christmas Day, there remains a robust
signal for a system somewhere within the CONUS. Unfortunately,
ensemble guidance continues to be very noisy regarding the
evolution of this, so confidence in any impacts for our area
and how severe impacts would be is very very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

The only aviation impact for the TAF period will be wind and
wind shear. Wind will increase through the day today and remain
elevated overnight tonight. Additionally, low level wind shear
will work its way from west to east over all TAF sites. The
initial routine TAF issuance sets the prevailing where 25 knot
wind shear will exist, but expect wind shear to top between
40-45 knots at its peak. VFR conditions will prevail for the
entire TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux