957 FXUS63 KDMX 142343 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 543 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Key Messages: -Rain chances (30-60%) Friday night and Saturday -Above normal temperatures persist into next week A large area of high pressure and ridging aloft was in place from the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley, which was providing clear skies and mild temperatures across central Iowa early this afternoon. Off to the west, mid to high level cloud cover was on the increase in Nebraska, Kansas and western Iowa/Missouri thanks to increasing moisture and lift aloft ahead of an advancing shortwave/closed low aloft over the Four Corners. Over the next 24-36 hours, this feature will continue to slowly march east towards the southern Plains, and will eventually make its way into the lower Mississippi River Valley by Saturday morning. As lift and CVA associated with the low work into the area, clouds will be on the increase (beginning tonight) along with chances (30-70%) of precipitation beginning Friday night. The threat will be highest initially north of Interstate 80 Friday night into Saturday morning, but should increase areawide during the daytime Saturday as the low phases with a shortwave diving south out of the northern Plains. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement of this evolution, so confidence is high on timing and amounts. Speaking of which, current deterministic guidance favors QPF around a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Ensembles favor at least a tenth (up to 60% probability) with confidence on the lower end of amounts greater than a quarter of an inch (20-30%). Higher amounts are favored over north central Iowa, with lesser amounts near the Iowa/Missouri border. Post system Sunday, the flow pattern will switch to the northwest before reverting back to southerly flow by mid-week. Despite guidance suggesting some weak shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow at times during the early portion of the week, moisture is lacking in fcst soundings to promote any precipitation. Regardless, temperatures will be cool to close the weekend into the work week with highs favored in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s. As ridging builds across the region with the switch to the southwesterly flow Tuesday night, temperatures will warm back above normal with highs favored in the mid to upper 40s by Wednesday. Late in the period, will have to monitor potential for a system to impact portions of the Midwest. Current blend of NBM has low chances (10-20%) of precipitation across south central Iowa Thurs/Fri, but there is plenty of time for this to change being a week away. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/ Issued at 542 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Few issues early in the period with light south/southeast flow and mainly high ovc. With approaching trough/system, cigs will lower to mid level from west to northeast (FOD/MCW/DSM) with late period cigs OVC040-050. Shower chances on the upswing for FOD by 00z, but have left out for now. Eastern sites ALO/OTM will remain generally mid to high level OVC through 00z. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Speck AVIATION...REV