309 FXUS61 KALY 141422 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 922 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023 .SYNOPSIS... We will have seasonable temperatures today under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. The fair weather with moderating temperatures will continue into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...Only minor adjustments based on current obs this morning. Cold start to the day, with lows in the single digits in the mountains to 10s/lower 20s even in lower elevations. With mostly sunny skies and a slight W-SW breeze, temperatures will continue to gradually warm the rest of the morning into the afternoon. .PREV DISCUSSION[0614]...Mostly sunny sky with some intervals of thin high clouds through the day. Warm advection occurring through the day with flat upper ridging building into our region. A few lake effect clouds could affect the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley. Temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 with some upper 20s to lower 30s higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Continued warm advection and flat upper ridging building into our region Friday, with some gusty west winds in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lower to mid 40s higher terrain. Northern stream upper energy in Canada tracks north and east of our region but the brief upper confluence will strengthen low level ridging in eastern Canada. So, a weak cold front with little to no moisture associated with it is expected to drop south as low level ridging builds south out of Canada Friday night. The high pressure will be over our region Saturday and begin to exit Saturday afternoon. So, cold advection will be weak, switching to weak warm advection by Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 40s with lower 40s higher terrain. System beginning to organize in the central U.S. is expected to push mid and high clouds into our region later Saturday and Saturday night. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A complex upper-level pattern will take shape later this weekend through the middle of next week as a series of upper- level shortwave troughs and possible cut-off lows develop across the eastern CONUS. An area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and merge with a weaker low across the Southeastern US and then track up or just off the East Coast. Plenty of moisture with this system combined with favorable upper-level jet dynamics should result in widespread precipitation across the region later Sunday through Monday. Thermal profiles suggest that all areas, including the higher elevations, will start out as rain with temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s. The overall track and timing of this system remains in question based on ensemble guidance, but should become more clear cut, especially once the surface low develops, in a couple of days. The overall persistence in the guidance on this system occurring, however, has allowed pops to increase into the likely range with this update. As this system begins to lift to our north and east, another upper-level trough from Canada will quickly wrap around the backside of this system and advect colder air back into the region from the west. This could lead to some areas transitioning to either a rain/snow mix or back to snow before precipitation ends on Tuesday. As this system departs, there is the potential for a cut-off low to develop somewhere near or off the coast by Wednesday. The location of this low will determine whether or not unsettled weather continues or we begin to dry out. For now, will run with the NBM during this time period due to uncertainty. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values in the 30s in the valleys and some 20s across the higher elevations. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the upcoming TAF period. High pressure to our south will bring intervals of clouds today through tonight with bases 4-5 kft or higher. Wind will be out of the west at 5-10 kt to start then shift to the south to southwest this afternoon into this evening. Wind will trend light to calm at most sites overnight but remain out of the south at KALB between 5-10 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun