311 FXUS63 KFGF 121742 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1142 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild Wed/Thu, but not as warm across the new snowpack - Fog potential is always there with warm daytime temperatures and melting snow. However, also need favorable night time conditions, which can be hard to narrow down too far out - Slight chance of precipitation Friday through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 As of early morning, wind speeds were still pretty breezy across the FA, but they were relaxing across the western half of North Dakota. The clouds have finally cleared the GF-EGF and F-M areas, but still remain across portions of northwest Minnesota. Under these clouds there was still some light snow being reported. Most of these clouds and any light snow should exit northwest Minnesota by sunrise. Should see more sun today, with decreasing winds turning more southwest through the day. Weak 850mb warm advection does occur by afternoon, but not enough to make much impact on highs today. With the sun, there should be some melting on roads/surfaces, but not a lot. Wind speeds do look to stay about 5 to 10 mph tonight, which with the minimal melting today should keep any fog away tonight. However, if speeds do drop more than anticipated, there could be spotty fog development tonight. The warm advection is much better tonight into Wednesday, with 925/850mb temperatures both rising above 0C across the entire FA by 00z Thu. Winds will be from the southwest Wednesday, coming from snowfree areas. However, the speeds are pretty low (5 to 15 mph) and there is still a lot of snow across portions of the FA. So those areas with snow will probably hold around or below 32F for highs Wednesday. Thursday, Upper ridging continues for the Central Conus keeping the Northern Plains mild and dry. Ensemble guidance wants to put 40+ degrees across the forecast area for Thursday. Given our recent snowpack, ensemble guidance is overdoing the temperatures and temperatures in the mid 30's seem more likely with areas with a snow pack. However, temperatures in the mid-30's are still above average for the Northern Plains in December. Friday through Tuesday, model guidance is still indicating that a weak clipper system will move through the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday and Sunday into Monday. A few ensemble member continue to hold onto light precip over these time periods and the vast majority remain to keep us dry. The NBM has increased probs to 20 percent for >0.10 inches during this last 00z run. Given the synoptic setup of a mid level low off the leeward side of the Rockies and a high pressure system over the Midwest/southern coast. This could help funnel gulf moisture into the Northern Plains to give us some light snow amounts Friday into Saturday. However, the same synoptic setup won't be occurring with the second clipper system Sunday into Monday. So the Northern Plains may end up dry the second time around. Given that our daily high temperatures look to be above freezing throughout the week our snowpack should have a thick crust on top limiting any blowing snow impacts to the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 VFR conditions with a few high clouds currently and a mid level cloud deck of 6000-9000 ft expected to come in from the west this evening. Probabilities for lower categories are 10 percent or less, but will keep an eye out this evening as warmer air coming over snow is ideal for fog formation. Winds will shift to a more southwesterly direction to bring the warmer air in, mostly in the 8 to 12 kt range. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon/MM AVIATION...JR