982 
FXUS63 KABR 120910
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
310 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After today, high temperatures will run 15 to 25 degrees above 
normal through the weekend.
  
- Southwest downslope winds along the Prairie Coteau tonight and 
Wednesday night. Strongest gusts around 40 mph Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/...
Issued at 309 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

A 1032 mb high settles over the region today bringing dry but cooler 
weather. Highs will still be as much as five degrees above normal 
for mid December, but should max out in the upper 20s to mid 30s 
today as H85 temps of -4 to -6C are still around at peak heating. 
Waa will continue to push in from the southwest overnight as the sfc 
high shifts southeast to Illinois. By peak heating Wednesday, H85 
temps will be between +2 and +4C, effectively pushing highs about 10 
to 20 degrees above normal as upper ridging builds in. 

The only other weather element of note in the short term will be 
increased downslope winds in the Sisseton Hills Tuesday night. Looks 
like southwest winds will gust as high as 25 to 30 mph into early 
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Evening through Monday/...
Issued at 309 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Not a whole lot of change in the forecast compared to 24 hours ago.

Much of the forecast period maintains upper level ridging over the 
western CONUS with troughing over the eastern CONUS, placing this 
CWA under northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge still appears to be 
on the move from Wednesday through Friday morning, leaving the upper 
steering flow over this region rather weak and perhaps even 
southwesterly for a time. Additional western CONUS ridging is 
forecast to redevelop by the end of the week.

Keeping tabs on Friday/Friday night for precipitation potential when 
a shortwave works through the region. For now, the forecast remains 
dry.

The setup continues to support a few downslope wind events 
throughout the period, when low level WAA is happening. A couple of 
the potentially stronger events still line up on Wednesday night 
into Thursday, with a potentially stronger event Thursday night. The 
probability of 40 mph wind gusts is at 30 to 70 percent at this 
time between midnight Thursday and midnight Friday.

These periods of WAA are still forecast to be interrupted by a 
couple of cold frontal passages. One of these frontal passages 
begins working through the CWA late Thursday night, clearing the CWA 
on Friday. Another cold front is progged to work through the region 
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through Tuesday regionwide. 


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TDK