092 FXUS64 KTSA 120403 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1003 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 909 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Another quiet night with light winds and some passing high clouds. Some locations have seen temperatures drop quickly in a very dry airmass and are near forecast lows. Have adjusted accordingly to incorporate current trends into forecast, but overall changes minimal. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 205 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Mid/upper-level flow will briefly transition to zonal flow on Tuesday, ahead of the next approaching upper-level trough/low that is currently moving across the Pacific NW. Unseasonably warm and pleasant weather are forecast on Tuesday, with generally light E/ESE winds through the day. Moisture begins to increase, especially by Tuesday afternoon/evening. As the upper-level low digs over the Desert SW on Wednesday morning, precipitation chances increase across western and central OK. At the same time, models/ensembles have been persistent in developing a subtle mid- level ridge, with its axis right over E. OK and W. AR by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This ridge will not only (briefly) prevent any further eastern progression of the upper low through at least Thursday morning/afternoon, but also keep majority of precipitation chances west of the CWA. Did include silent PoPs (10-14%) for the far northwestern forecast area (mainly Pawnee, Osage, and Creek counties) on Wednesday as a few ensemble members/NBM probabilities keep non-zero precip chances through the day. The forecast becomes a little more opaque towards the second half of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend. Forecast confidence is high that the upper-level ridge axis will shift east of the region by Thursday or Friday. This will allow the upper- level low to progress eastward. However, its exact track is still very much in question at this time with (model) run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies in the deterministic model suite. It’s worth noting that model trends have the center of the upper low tracking across the Red River/N. TX/S. OK, a northerly trend in its track compared to previous runs, before diving southeast over SE TX by Saturday night. This northerly trend would suggest a northern extent of precipitation chances. But with lower forecast confidence, decided to lean more towards the NBM solution at this time, which continues to give the highest probabilities and amounts south of the I-40 corridor on Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances could linger into Saturday evening in far SE OK, but model consensus has precipitation ending by early Sunday morning, with N/NW flow aloft and surface high pressure dominating into early next week. Abnormally warm temperatures (5-10 degrees warmer than average) for mid-December are anticipated through much of the forecast period. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-upper 50s (near 60 degrees some days) and lows generally in the mid-upper 30s/lower 40s. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 31 58 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 31 60 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 31 62 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 25 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 29 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 32 58 37 53 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 31 58 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 28 57 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 F10 31 58 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 31 59 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07