764 FXUS64 KEPZ 072335 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 435 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 Breezy and warm weather will continue through Friday. A cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday morning, cooling temperatures to below normal for this weekend. Quiet weather will resume and last through mid week next week. There is high uncertainty in potential chances for precipitation moving back into the region, but they are none zero for late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 Tonight through Friday... Currently satellite and 12Z RAOBs depict a strong jet aloft streaming over the western US. The bottom of the upper level trough is over SoCal/AZ today, with west winds aloft reaching CO/NE/OK/TX. This has induced a surface lee side low over NE/OK and is creating a ~5-8 mb gradient over the area this afternoon (seen in surface obs). This afternoon, surface winds are gusting to around 20 to 25 mph in the lower elevations. Gusts will remain lighter tonight in the lower elevations, but will begin to increase after sunset in the higher terrain of the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains as the stronger jet aloft moves eastward towards NM. Latest guidance has shifted the 500 mb jet max towards central NM, a little too north to give the lowlands the strongest winds Friday. The strongest part of the jet max will also pass over much of NM mid day Friday, which isn't the most ideal time for max mixing heights (which are usually in the early to mid afternoon hours). The surface front will also pass through the region later Friday night. All of these forcing mechanisms aren't synced up the best to create the perfect wind storm. Due to this mismatch of forcing, the strongest winds will likely be in the higher terrain of Grant, Sierra, and Otero counties mid day Friday and along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. There is a wind advisory out for these winds. In the lower elevations, Not only had global deterministic models trended down for locations like Deming NM, but CAMs and ensemble solutions have as well for the 12Z & 18Z runs. West winds will remain gusty in the lowlands, but there is stronger confidence in winds only reaching 20 to 30 mph with max gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. This could still kick up some patchy blowing dust, making the skies hazy near source regions. Saturday through Thursday... A stronger frontal passage will occur around midnight Saturday morning. The path is closer to a side door, meaning winds will be northerly. Winds should gradually diminish as the front passes through, however gusty winds could linger in N/S orientated canyons and valleys. Sunday morning, temperatures will be below freezing across the borderland. Even urban areas like El Paso and Las Cruces have a high chance of dipping into the high 20s. These temperatures will only be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, as cooler overnight temperatures are starting to get more climatological for December. A gradual warming trend will begin Sunday, however temperatures will hover around normal once they reach it. Winds will remain light through next week. Very low chances for precipitation near the end of next week, however models have kept unsettled weather in days 7-9. We will see if those chances can get past day 6. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 433 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 VFR conditions expected with variable high clouds. Winds will generally keep AOB 10 knots this evening into the overnight and morning hours except at LRU where gusty winds should subside by evening. Around 18z tomorrow, winds are expected to increase, generally from the west (240-270) with speeds around 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots. Some BLDU is possible, but chances are low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023 ...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Friday... A gradual warming trend will last through Friday, with high temperatures reaching around 5 to 15 degrees above normal today area wide and Friday in the lowland locations. As temperatures warm, humidity values will decrease. Today and Friday Min RH values will be in the low to mid teens for the lowlands, and low 20s to low 30s for higher terrain. With overnight low temperatures remaining cool to cold, overnight recoveries will remain healthy through the period. Breezy winds are shown in the surface observations this afternoon as a stronger jet aloft approaches. West winds will increase to gusty overnight tonight in the higher terrain locations of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. East slopes will also become gusty as well towards sunrise. There is growing confidence in the strongest winds being over the aforementioned areas mid day Friday as that is when the jet will pass overhead. Mismatching of forces will keep winds breezy to occasionally gusty in the lowlands and potentially evening lighter for areas along the international border. With recent snow pack in the higher terrain and rain adjacent, fuel moisture is near normal for this time of year and should counteract some of the elevated fire potential Friday afternoon. After Friday, a cold front pushes through decreasing temperatures, mixing heights and vent rates, but increasing humidity. Winds will also diminish for the weekend. Quiet weather returns next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 71 39 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 40 66 35 53 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 37 67 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 39 66 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 44 20 28 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 36 66 30 48 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 57 30 48 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 67 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 63 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 42 69 37 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 69 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 40 73 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 62 35 46 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 40 71 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 37 68 33 52 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 69 37 51 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 68 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 71 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 40 68 36 54 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 37 66 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 58 26 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 35 54 22 39 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 33 53 24 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 61 22 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 66 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 67 30 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 57 24 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 63 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 34 63 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 35 58 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 62 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 35 66 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 66 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 68 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 39 63 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ415-416-426. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown