950 FXUS63 KTOP 072329 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 529 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 Key Messages: - Warm and breezy conditions linger through sunset today. - Brief round of rain Friday PM, mainly east-central Kansas. - Dry with seasonable temperatures for the weekend and into next week. Current water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridging over the Plains, while over the western CONUS a broad upper trough is in place. Several embedded shortwaves are evident within the longer wave trough, and the first of these currently moving over the Front Range. This has helped create a broad surface trough over the High Plains, with a tight pressure gradient in place to the east across our region. Deep mixing is helping temperatures climb into the mid 60s while also bringing down stronger winds aloft. As such, gusty south winds remain in place this afternoon, up to 25 mph sustained and 35-40 mph in gusts. Can't rule out briefly reaching advisory criteria somewhere in east-central Kansas where the LLJ is the strongest, but any such stronger gusts look to remain isolated. Winds weaken after sunset as boundary layer mixing decreases and the approaching trough/frontal boundary pushes the core of the LLJ off to the east. Can't rule out some patchy fog (40% chance) across east- central Kansas where winds are lightest and RH highest along the frontal boundary. Tomorrow, guidance remains consistent that a surface low will develop along the frontal boundary and lift northeast, staying just south/east of the forecast area. Slight chance (20%) that there could be an isolated heavier shower or weak thunderstorm south of I- 35 if the low can track just enough north to bring some weak instability into the area. However the most likely scenario is for only some light rain across east-central Kansas, associated with isentropic ascent north of the surface low. Temperatures do cool to near freezing by early Saturday morning, but confidence is now high (90-99%) that precipitation will have entirely moved out by the time this occurs, given the positively tilted nature to the upper trough. For the weekend and into the first half of next week, dry and quiet conditions will prevail as the region sits under northwest flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper trough. Temperatures look to be coolest over the weekend with a gradual warming trend into mid-week, but overall will stay fairly seasonable for the time of year. Confidence in temperatures and precipitation chances decreases for the second half of next week, as guidance spread increases with the evolution of an approaching western trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 VFR at terminals as gusty south winds veer to the southwest and weaken to start the period. A passing 50kt LLJ at 2kft creates turbulent winds in the low levels as southwest winds increase from 10 to 15 kts sustained between 02-06Z before subsiding. High clouds increase in advance of a fropa, progged to reach MHK aft 17Z and 19Z at TOP/FOE. Rain probs are minimal at this point. && .CLIMATE... Updated at 223 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023 Record high temperature information for December 7: Location Current Record High Forecast High Topeka 70, set in 1894 66 Concordia 69, set in 1894 65 Record highest minimum temperature information for December 7: Location Current Record Highest Minimum Forecast Low Topeka 54, set in 1894 46 Concordia 39, set in 1915 41 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...22 CLIMATE...65/Reese