165 FXUS64 KHUN 060457 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1057 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 828 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 The passage of a cold front tonight will bring low stratus and low chances (10-30%) for some rain showers in our northeast. Currently, light returns can be seen on radar moving southeast over middle Tennessee through northern Georgia. A few very light returns are seen over our southern middle Tennessee counties as well. As the previous shift mentioned, expecting this activity to continue into the overnight hours, with perhaps a few snow flurries up in the higher elevations. However, confidence in this occurring is low. Temperatures across the Tennessee Valley range from around 50 degrees to the lower 50s; although, a couple spots have dipped into the mid 40s late this evening. Lows are still forecast to drop into the mid to upper 30s later tonight. Overall, the forecast remains on track with no significant changes needed. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 Short term model consensus suggests that NW flow aloft will remain rather strong tomorrow as the axis of the broader longwave trough tracks eastward along the Atlantic Coast. Low stratus clouds are predicted to disperse from NW-to-SE during the late morning/early afternoon hours, with temps briefly touching the 45-50F range in the valley (lower 40s in elevated terrain). Clear skies and calm winds will set the stage for a strong radiational cooling event (and subsequent development of freezing fog) Wednesday night, with lows ranging from the l-m 20s in outlying communities to the u20s-l30s in urban locations and near large bodies of water. A warming trend will begin to unfold on Thursday, as the axis of a mid- level ridge translates eastward across the MS Valley, with highs returning to the m-u 50s. High clouds will increase in coverage on Thursday evening, as the ridge axis crosses the region and winds aloft back to WSW. Although conditions will likely remain dry for much of the day on Friday, we expect the the coverage of low clouds to increase throughout the day within a strengthening moist advection pattern to the east of an approaching shortwave trough. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 An active pattern begins to take shape this weekend as long range guidance shows a rapidly deepening mid/upper trough shift from the Southern Plains into the Mid South and eventually Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. While ensembles differ slightly in the exact timing and evolution of this system, confidence is increasing for yet another good wetting rain event, especially during a Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning timeframe. 70-80% members of the Grand Ensemble indicate 1+" of storm total rainfall -- with 40-50% indicating 2"+. This rainfall would be beneficial in helping mitigate the drought that has gripped the region this Fall -- though we would have to monitor for the potential for excessive rainfall and localized minor flooding should this take shape. Additionally, given the strong dynamics and shear associated with this system, the potential for organized convection will exist -- the magnitude of which will be highly dependent on the thermodynamic environment. For now, ensembles generally show the more favorable warm sector and instability remaining pinched off to our south and west. Still, the strong dynamics will at least give us pause to consider the potential for a least a few strong storms/organized convection -- and we will continue to monitor trends as this event draws closer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023 MVFR to low-end VFR conditions will develop at both terminals by early Wednesday morning, as broken decks of low stratus filter into the region, prompting ceilings of around 3 kft. These clouds will linger through the early afternoon, before dissipating late in the day. Winds will remain gusty out of the NW/NNW for the remainder of the night and into the morning hours on Wednesday -- before relaxing by the evening hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...AMP.24