496 FXUS66 KMFR 022249 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 249 PM PST Sat Dec 2 2023 .SHORT TERM...Most of the precipitation is falling as rain this afternoon west of the Cascades with snow in the higher elevations of the Cascades. Current 24-hour totals for the day since this morning include 0.37" at Brookings and 0.16" for Medford. The 70-90% probability for 1"/hour snowfall rates still stands through this evening for parts of the Cascades including Crater Lake. The current snow levels of 5,000'-5,500' (which were verified by a spotter) will rise to 6,000'-7,000' tonight, helping put an end to the snowfall from this event while the Winter Storm Warning expires at 10 PM this evening. Current radar shows steady rain in eastern Douglas County near Steamboat and steady/moderate rain in Josephine County heading into Jackson County. The rain will continue tonight with another round of heavy rain for the coast this afternoon at 0.75"-1.50" and later tomorrow morning into the afternoon at the same. Winds will be a concern through more of Sunday with guidance supporting gusts near 45-50 mph Sunday morning and afternoon parts of central and western Lake County, so an additional wind advisory has been issued for the areas that includes parts of Highway 31 near Summer Lake. There will also be stronger winds in the ridge lines of Douglas and Josephine counties, but those areas would have a smaller chance to reach Advisory criteria and it would be short-lived. -Hermansen .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)...The general consensus among the operational ECMWF and GFS and their respective individual ensemble members suggest the heaviest precipitation will be focused north of our forecast area Monday through Tuesday afternoon. However, there will be times where the core of the heavier precipitation could slip south into the northwest part of forecast area at times to include northern Coos and northwest Douglas County during this time. The NBM appears to be too bullish with the southeastward extent of the precipitation Monday and Tuesday and the forecast was adjusted to better reflect the operation and individual ensemble members noted above. This will also put a cap on the flooding concerns for the mainstem rivers and smaller creeks and streams. Snow levels during this time will be above all pass levels (precipitation could even be rain at Crater Lake), therefore there will be no concerns on that front. It won't be until Tuesday night into Wednesday when the upper trough pushes towards the area that the core of heavier precipitation will shift south into our area, and snow levels begin to lower to the point where areas around Diamond Lake and Crater Lake will see snow during the day Wednesday. There could be a 6 hour period Wednesday morning for moderate to heavy precipitation, then precipitation will become showery Wednesday afternoon as the front moves east of the Cascades and upper troughing moves overhead. Cool and unsettled weather continues Thursday through Friday morning, although there are some signs we could catch a relative break in the action Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The upper trough shifts east of our area Friday afternoon leading to diminishing precipitation. Odds are it could dry our Friday night through Saturday. The one outlier is the operational GFS. It shows warm frontal precipitation moving into the area Saturday, but the operational ECMWF, and ensemble members show a dry solution and even the majority of the GFS ensemble members show a dry solution friday night through Saturday. -Petrucelli && .AVIATION...02/18Z TAFs...Ceilings and visibility will remain low through the TAf period hovering between MVFR and IFR with a reduction in visibility, especially this evening until the end of the TAF period. It's possible Medford and Roseburg could experience brief periods of LIFR conditions this evening through the end of the TAF period. The main challenge will be to pin down the timing of categorical changes, so uncertainty does exist, but generally expecting unfavorable flying conditions through this cycle. Rain looks to be the primary precipitation type for the terminals. However, rain and wet snow mix is likely at Klamath Falls today, then should be just rain starting between 0-2z this evening. -Petrucelli && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Saturday December 2, 2023...A prolonged period of active weather will continue well into next week. Periods of gusty south to southwest winds will be common, along with southerly wind waves and long period west swell. Gusty south winds will return this evening and tonight as the next front approaches, with gales and very steep seas expected north of Cape Blanco beginning Sunday morning. After a brief period of very slight improvement Sunday night, gales and very steep seas are likely for much of the area Monday through Monday night as another front pushes through. Seas may become very high at 15 to 18 ft on Monday and again as they build to a peak of around 16 to 20 ft at 19 seconds on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Additional disturbances during the second half of the week will likely not be as strong. -BP && .BEACH HAZARDS...Active weather continues into next week. A series of fronts will move through the region during this time along with multiple moderate to high swell trains. An extended period of sustained wave action is expected. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft will coincide with higher than normal ocean levels, leading to an increased risk of beach erosion. Additionally, there is a minor risk of sneaker waves as these swell trains build into the waters. Confidence is low, however, considering wind wave interference is likely to limit, but not completely negate the sneaker threat. Tuesday night into Wednesday, very large breaking waves are possible due to large long period west swell. If venturing to area beaches during this time, use caution when visiting and remember to never turn your back on the ocean! -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for ORZ021- 022. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500 feet for ORZ027-028. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ030. Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370. && $$