388 FXUS64 KBMX 240901 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 301 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2023 A cold front is draped across Oklahoma and Kentucky, then northeastward through New York this morning. There is a small chance of seeing some light rain/sprinkles across the area through the first half of the morning, as an upper low moves through. While there is a small chance, if anyone actually measures, it would only a few hundredths of an inch at best. The cold front will begin to push into the area by midday and then generally be positioned south of the Interstate 85 corridor by sunset. Generally we expect just clouds to accompany this front as the airmass is dry on the backside of the upper low that is swinging through right now. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight the front will begin to slow some and be generally across the southeast at daybreak and then push south of our area by midday. Again, looking at generally just cloudy skies as the front itself passes through. As we move through the day Saturday, high pressure will be in control. Look for the high pressure to slide east and will increase the easterly flow across the area. This will likely bring in some clouds into the eastern third of the area by sunset, but again we should remain dry. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2023 A broad area of west-southwesterly flow aloft will stretch across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region at the beginning of the period. This will feature flow aloft increasing in magnitude as northern and southern stream shortwaves attempt to phase, though the southern stream disturbance will kick out across the Appalachians Sunday evening. These disturbances will coincide with separate cold fronts effectively merging as they advance toward the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will advance west to east across the northern Gulf where tropospheric moisture will be in greater supply. All things considered, most areas will see light/moderate rain showers on Sunday ahead of the cold front, with rain totals generally one quarter inch or less. I've kept PoPs in the 50-60% range for now as most guidance isn't optimistic on QPF tonight, generally with a suppressed, weaker coastal low. Either way, high pressure will center across the Red River Sunday night as cold advection sweeps across the Deep South. Stable conditions under high pressure will foster cool/dry weather through much of next week before airmass modification occurs at the end of the period. Monday and Tuesday nights will feature low temperatures in the 20s and 30s. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CST THU NOV 23 2023 Mid-level clouds will continue overnight, but cigs and vis will remain VFR at all sites through the forecast period. A small chance of a light shower overnight, but coverage will be too sparse for inclusion at specific terminals. Surface winds will remain light and variable through the overnight, mainly westerly or northwesterly less than 5 kts. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool conditions will continue across Central Alabama today and tomorrow along with passing clouds. We will be rain-free, however. 20 ft winds are forecast to favor a northwesterly direction today, mainly 5 mph or less, with minimum RH values 35-50%. Winds become easterly tomorrow, remaining light overall. Rain chances remain in the forecast for Sunday before a cold front moves across the area on Sunday night. Rain amounts appear to be light overall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 35 63 39 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 62 38 63 43 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 39 62 44 / 10 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 60 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 60 38 63 44 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 61 42 63 44 / 10 0 0 10 Montgomery 61 38 65 44 / 10 0 0 10 Troy 64 39 66 45 / 10 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...12