089 FXUS63 KMKX 222053 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 253 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 .SHORT TERM... (Issued 253 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023) Tonight through Thursday Night: Winds have shifted to southerly this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move southeast out of the Upper Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, a surface low in the Northern Plains will be advancing east along the US/Canadian border tonight. A tighter pressure gradient will move into the state between these two systems causing winds to become breezy this evening. As the surface low moves through the Upper Great Lakes Region tonight it will drag a cold front across the state. Southwest winds will remain breezy until the front has passed. Conditions are expected to remain dry as this cold front passes. Soundings are very dry and there is very little moisture for there to be any precipitation along the front. The cold front is expected to move through right around dawn on Thanksgiving. Cold air advection will start to kick in behind the cold front which will cause the overnight temperatures Thursday to fall into the low 20s to teens. Patterson && .LONG TERM... (Issued 253 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023) Friday through Wednesday: Colder temperatures with highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the low 20s to teens will continue through the rest of the extended forecast. Strong high pressure is expected to move in for the end of the week and into the weekend bring more dry and quiet days. The next chance for precipitation looks to return Sunday with a quick moving system expected to move through the Great Lakes Region. There is still a bit of uncertainty with this system, but overall looks like a quick hitting system with relatively low QPF to work with. There will be a trough moving down from Canada toward the Great Lakes and a shortwave trough advecting out of the Rocky mountain west during this time. Some of the uncertainty that exists is due to some phasing issues with these two systems. For example the Euro is keeping these two systems separate while the GFS is trying to phase them together. While were not expecting much snowfall overall with this quick hitting system the differences in the track and phasing will play a role in who will be getting the most snow. Overall just something to keep an eye on as many people will be returning from their holiday travels during this time. Beyond Sunday, cold and dry weather returns as another ridge is expected to move into the state. Patterson && .AVIATION... (Issued 253 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023) VFR conditions are expected through the period. The last of the mid level ceilings around 2 kft has moved southeast out of the state. High level clouds will continue to linger through the rest of the period. Southwest winds this afternoon will become breezy this evening into tonight. Gusts to 15-20 kts are expected this evening ahead of an approaching cold front tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will quickly shift to northwesterly behind the cold front. No precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front. Patterson && .MARINE... (Issued 253 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023) With a surface ridge over Ontario will continue to track southeast through tonight as a low pressure system in Minnesota advances east across the northern Great Lakes. As these two systems move east, a tighter pressure gradient between them will set up over the lake tonight leading to some breezy southwest winds. Southwest winds will approach Small Craft Criteria for the nearshore zones, but should stay just below this evening into tonight. Heading into Thanksgiving morning, a cold front will move across the lake quickly shifting winds to northwesterly. Conditions are expected to remain dry as this front passes. North to northwest winds behind the front will continue to be breezy throughout much of the day Thursday until high pressure builds into the Mississippi River Valley. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee