377 
FXUS63 KICT 190354
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
954 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers & a few thunderstorms for Sunday-Monday

- Cooler: near to below normal temperatures

- Even cooler by Friday-Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023

Changes: 

1) Delayed precip chances tonight 

2) Decreased temperatures a tad on Sunday 

3) Inserted 15-20% precip chances on Friday in NC & SE KS

There is a trough from Ontario/Quebec to along the east coast 
while a ridge stretches from southern Texas to 
Alberta/Saskatchewan. As high pressure hangs overhead, it was a 
pretty nice fall day across Kansas with clear skies except in 
the western third of the state. Temperatures ranged from the 
lower 60s to lower 70s. The ridge will break down as a wave 
approaches from the west. Moisture transport should increase 
from west to east across Kansas tonight with better chances into
the center of the state after 6Z. This delay in the moisture 
transport has led to holding off the arrival of the initial 
precipitation chances until after 6Z (midnight). High confidence
of rain showers exists from Sunday into the daytime hours of 
Monday with precipitation chances from 60-90%. There is some 
instability which may trigger isolated thunderstorms and could 
bring higher rainfall rates and amounts. Latest guidance from 
the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows much higher rainfall 
amounts in some locations compared to the last couple of runs. 
It was decided to trend upward but tone down that output; 
amounts could range from about 0.5 an inch to 1.5 inches with 
locally higher amounts possible. Sunday will be a good day to 
stay inside for a good movie, book, game or puzzle. Cooler air 
associated with this system brings a drop in the temperatures 
closer to seasonal normal with values in the 50s. Given the 
cloud cover and precipitation, daytime high temperatures were 
dropped a tad for Sunday. The low pressure system slowly tracks 
east to the Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday. Temperatures 
are expected to stay near to below normal with values in the 
upper 40s to mid 50s for Thanksgiving. 

Models are signaling a system at the end of next week into the 
weekend. As mentioned previously, model disparity is present. 
EMC's GEFS plumes show a 30 degree temperature spread for this 
time period implying a good amount of uncertainty. The latest 
NBM included 15- 20% chances for precipitation on Friday in 
portions of north central and southeast Kansas. This 
corresponding uncertainty challenges the precipitation type with
snow not out of the question especially in northern Kansas. It 
was decided to stay with the guidance from the NBM for now. 
There is still plenty of time for the models to come closer in 
line to increase the confidence for what will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023 

Areas of light to moderate rain will spread east-northeast
across the region overnight through Sunday, as a storm system 
approaches from the west. Rain may actually mix with or change
to all drizzle Sunday from west to east, as cloud ice is lost. 
Cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms given weak 
instability, but thunder chances should be fairly hit-or-miss. 
Additionally, as low-level moisture advection persists, 
ceilings should gradually lower to MVFR (below 2000 ft AGL) and 
possibly IFR from west to east by mid-late morning Sunday. The 
potential for IFR ceilings will be greatest generally along and 
west of the I-135 corridor.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...ADK