719 FXUS65 KABQ 180524 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1024 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 A couple of disturbances will cross the forecast area Saturday through Monday with cooler temperatures, daily rain and snow chances, and periods of strong winds. Rain accumulations could reach a tenth to over a quarter inch across northwest, west central, and north central areas Saturday and Saturday evening, with an inch or so of snow on the high peaks of the northern mountains. Strong northwest winds are then expected Sunday with gusts peaking up to 50 mph along and just east of the southern Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Sacramento, and Guadalupe Mountains. A wintry mix of precipitation is forecast for many areas Sunday and Sunday night, then mainly along and east of the central mountain chain Monday. The northern mountains near and above 9000 feet may accumulate a few to perhaps 6 inches of snow Sunday into Monday, with lighter amounts across the high peaks elsewhere. There will also be strong north winds on the eastern plains Monday with gusts around 55 mph over northeast areas. Warmer temperatures, dry weather, and lighter winds are forecast Tuesday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 305 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 The eastern Pacific low continues to churn off the CA coast, and the subtropical jet is stretching into the southwestern states, drawing in a modified fetch of moisture. Some lightning strikes are evident near the core of the upper low and also in the subtropical moisture fetch near 15-20N / 120W, a hopeful harbinger of moisture coming toward NM. High cirrus clouds have thinned over the southern half of NM this afternoon, and a few cumulus have persisted over the southwestern and south central high terrain. As night falls, the cumulus will mostly fade, but toward dawn Saturday slightly diffluent flow aloft and the accompanying subtropical moisture flux should begin to usher in more clouds and showers toward southwestern NM. During the day Saturday, a quick eastward spread of the moisture and increased lift from a shortwave ejecting ahead of the Pacific low will lead to a rapid increase in rain and very high elevation snow chances. The subtropical moisture will be subdued from its origins, but sufficient for many western and central zones to receive between 0.1 and 0.3” rain and liquid equivalent snow. Marginal instability could even lead to a few claps of thunder in the afternoon. Snow levels will remain quite high and generally above 9kft Saturday. Eastern zones will have much lesser, but still non-zero, chances for measurable rainfall, as they will have to overcome downsloping (warming/drying) effects in breezy southwest surface winds. Overall temperatures will be slightly cooler in many western and central zones due to the increased clouds and precipitation. The aforementioned shortwave trough will exit NM Saturday evening with a reduction in showers toward midnight, but a secondary perturbation will race our way overnight, keeping rain and high elevation snow chances going into early Sunday morning, mainly in western NM. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday as an upper level low pressure system opens into a trough while crossing southeastward across the forecast area. In the wake of Saturday's weather system, west and northwest winds will be windy on Sunday over central and southern areas. The system will draw another strong cold front southward through the state Sunday night and Monday. The backdoor portion of this front will produce strong winds on the northeast highlands and plains Monday into Monday evening with gusts potentially up to 60 mph from Raton to Clayton, and up to 45 mph further south along the eastern border of the forecast area. Aside from the wind there will be fairly widespread rain and snow showers mainly over the northwest half of the forecast area Sunday, then over central and east central areas as well Sunday night, then mainly along and east of the central mountain chain on Monday. The storm system looks to have enough moisture with it for much of the northern and eastern halves of the forecast area to accumulate around 0.10-0.25 inches of rain and liquid equivalent precipitation, except near a half inch in the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The snow accumulation level looks to be quite high with the northern mountains accumulating a few inches of snow mainly above 9000 feet, except locally near 6 inches along the high peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Blowing snow looks to be a concern on Raton Pass Monday and Monday evening, given the strong winds also expected. High temperatures will bottom out Monday a few to around 14 degrees. A ridge of high pressure will then cross the Desert Southwest Tuesday through Thursday with warming temperatures, dry weather, and lighter winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 917 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 Pacific moisture will ramp-up through the TAF period ahead of a shortwave trough, forecast to bring sct/num showers with iso thunder to much of central and western NM on Saturday. MVFR conditions are likely in/near showers Saturday, with impacts likely at KFMN and KGUP and less likely at KSAF, KABQ and KAEG. Short-lived IFR conditions are possible as well, mainly at KGUP. Otherwise, expect the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs across the area through the TAF period. Winds will increase some Saturday as well with increasing westerly flow and a deepening lee side trough. Gusts to between 25-30kts will be common at KLVS and KTCC by Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2023 A much calmer and more tranquil day weather-wise is currently finishing up the work week, however more unsettled conditions will arrive this weekend and early next week as a few weather disturbances arrive over NM. Breezy conditions will develop on Saturday before turning more windy in some west central and central areas on Sunday. Modified moisture from the subtropics will keep humidity elevated while also bringing in light rain, high elevation snow showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday, and to a lesser extent on Sunday. The higher humidity and soaking precipitation will suppress critical fire weather this weekend. Unsettled and perturbed flow aloft will continue into Monday when a final, more potent weather disturbance aloft will arrive over NM, bringing stronger winds, colder temperatures and additional rain and snow to portions of the state. Temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees below average Monday, and the very stiff north winds (especially in the northeastern plains) will bring brisk conditions that will fend off critical fire weather conditions. The weather pattern will then return to a drier, warmer and less windy one Tuesday onward though late next week. After a stretch of improved smoke ventilation and dispersion through early next week, poor and inefficient mixing looks to complicate prescribed burning forecasts for much of the forecast area Tuesday and thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 54 35 52 / 5 60 40 70 Dulce........................... 24 56 27 48 / 5 70 50 70 Cuba............................ 32 53 32 48 / 5 80 50 60 Gallup.......................... 28 54 30 51 / 5 70 50 40 El Morro........................ 30 54 31 48 / 0 70 40 40 Grants.......................... 30 57 31 51 / 0 70 30 40 Quemado......................... 33 59 32 53 / 5 70 40 20 Magdalena....................... 42 63 37 56 / 5 60 20 10 Datil........................... 36 60 33 53 / 0 50 20 10 Reserve......................... 34 62 28 60 / 20 50 20 10 Glenwood........................ 45 66 40 62 / 20 50 20 5 Chama........................... 23 51 25 43 / 5 70 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 39 53 35 46 / 0 70 40 50 Pecos........................... 38 57 36 49 / 5 50 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 52 29 42 / 0 50 30 40 Red River....................... 22 49 24 42 / 0 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 16 51 28 43 / 0 40 30 30 Taos............................ 27 55 29 47 / 0 50 40 30 Mora............................ 31 58 33 48 / 0 40 30 20 Espanola........................ 32 60 33 54 / 0 60 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 40 56 36 49 / 5 60 40 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 58 34 51 / 5 60 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 60 42 57 / 0 60 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 61 41 58 / 0 60 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 63 36 60 / 0 60 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 61 39 58 / 0 60 30 30 Belen........................... 39 66 38 61 / 0 60 30 10 Bernalillo...................... 39 61 39 59 / 0 60 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 37 64 35 60 / 0 60 40 20 Corrales........................ 39 61 38 59 / 0 60 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 38 64 36 60 / 0 60 30 20 Placitas........................ 42 59 42 54 / 0 60 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 41 60 39 58 / 0 60 30 30 Socorro......................... 44 69 40 65 / 0 50 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 56 39 48 / 0 60 40 20 Tijeras......................... 42 58 39 52 / 0 60 40 20 Edgewood........................ 37 60 37 51 / 5 60 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 62 33 53 / 0 60 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 37 59 34 49 / 0 50 30 10 Mountainair..................... 40 61 37 53 / 0 60 50 10 Gran Quivira.................... 41 62 38 54 / 0 50 50 5 Carrizozo....................... 48 65 42 59 / 5 30 30 0 Ruidoso......................... 42 61 40 53 / 5 30 30 0 Capulin......................... 27 62 30 54 / 0 20 20 10 Raton........................... 27 64 30 58 / 0 30 20 20 Springer........................ 27 67 32 58 / 0 20 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 34 60 34 53 / 0 40 30 10 Clayton......................... 37 66 41 62 / 0 20 20 5 Roy............................. 33 63 37 60 / 0 20 20 0 Conchas......................... 35 70 40 67 / 0 20 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 39 66 42 59 / 0 40 40 0 Tucumcari....................... 37 69 42 66 / 0 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 41 67 44 66 / 0 20 30 0 Portales........................ 41 68 45 68 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 65 42 65 / 0 30 30 0 Roswell......................... 48 67 47 72 / 0 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 46 69 44 64 / 0 20 10 0 Elk............................. 45 68 41 63 / 5 30 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...11