382 FXUS61 KRLX 171751 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1251 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds increasing ahead of an approaching front. Rain showers will affect the area this afternoon into early Saturday. Dry for the weekend. Next system brings rain and wintry mix later next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 744 AM Friday... Added sprinkles across the area ahead of convection closer to the cold front per radar imagery and surface observations. Also, adjusted hourly temperatures and dewpoints per latest observation trends. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 617 AM Friday... Forecast remains on track. Updated temperatures and dew points as they have all increased some in the last few hours. Sat obs shows more cloud cover filtering over the area ahead of the front, which is still projected to arrive on time early this afternoon. As of 210 AM Friday... Key Points: * Measurable rain today into early Saturday helping aid in fire mitigation. * Rainfall amounts between 0.30 and 0.60 inches. Sat obs shows high-level clouds entering the western fringes of the CWA ahead of an upper-level trough to the west. High pressure is sitting just to the east, and will continue to slide eastward allowing a cold front to move in today. Currently, seeing a variance in temperatures across the region. Warmer temperatures in the mid 50s further west along the Ohio River due to increasing cloud cover. The mountains and areas further east have decoupled under mostly clear skies and are reporting 30s and low 40s. Blended guidance has not had a good handle on this so went with a mix of ADJLAV and GLAMP as these models had a better handle on this trend. Temperatures may drop a few more degrees in the next few hours, but will start to stay steady as the morning goes. They may likely increase some as southerly winds pick up. Dew points are still dry in the 30s and 40s, so the mountains are seeing an excellent RH recovery, while the lowlands are lagging behind but still in good standing. Dew points will increase as the morning goes on as moisture moves in. Cold front crosses early this afternoon with rain moving in across SE Ohio, then tracking east, reaching the mountains by late afternoon. This front will be a quick hitter with PoPs starkly decreasing from west to east starting by the 5-7PM block. Outside of a few lingering upslope showers/sprinkles in the mountains, rain will largely be tapering off by early Saturday. PWATs are forecasted to be just above 1.00" which is plenty of moisture for this time of year for a measurable rain. Total rainfall amounts will be between 0.30-0.60" with the higher end being observed further north and west across the Ohio River Valley and the northern lowlands. This soaking rain will be a much needed relief for wildfire mitigation across our area. Temperatures will be fairly comfortable across the lowlands this afternoon due to returning moisture. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s across the lowlands; 50s and low 60s across the mountains. SW'rly winds will be light to gentle early this morning. Gusts will increase to the teens and lower 20s later this morning, mostly across the northern lowlands and along the higher elevations of the mountains. Winds make a hard switch to the NNW-N later this afternoon behind the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1252 PM Friday... Overall, little change in thinking in short term forecast period. Conditions should remain generally dry, with gradually moderating temperatures Sunday into Monday, with high pressure in control. On Monday, clouds and winds will be on the increase out ahead of the next system, along with a small uptick in temperatures, as warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area, generally north of the CWA by early Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1130 AM Friday... Precipitation chances increase across the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a deep trough forms across the south central U.S., with a strong moisture surge of Gulf moisture developing on strengthening low level winds. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times during the period, particularly on Tuesday as a surface low strengthens and moves into the Ohio Valley region as an upper trough in the northern stream forms and sweeps across the area, and enhanced at times by any convection that is able to develop. As the low/cold front and upper trough sweep across the area, much colder air will usher in for Wednesday, with the potential for falling temperatures during the day. There is the potential for some snow on Wednesday, mainly across the higher terrain. Thanksgiving Day at this point is looking mainly dry, but overall, rather chilly. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1224 PM Friday... With a cold front currently crossing the area from west to east, expect periods of IFR conditions under rain showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, tapering off this evening. The best timing for these conditions to affect PKB and HTS will be from 19Z to 23Z this evening. The rest of sites will follow with CRW being affected by 20Z, and EKN, CKB, and BKW from 22Z to 03Z tonight. Behind the cold front, MVFR ceiling will prevail mainly across the western slopes and eastern mountains through 12Z Saturday. High pressure builds from the west on Saturday providing widespread VFR conditions with clearing skies spreading from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly winds 10 knots or less will prevail this afternoon, becoming gusty to 22 knots along the cold front. Winds will shift out of the north northwest this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing for precipitation may vary from forecast. Wind gusts may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M L L H M H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L M H H H L H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH recovery has been good to excellent this morning. Most spots in the mountains are showing RH percentages in the 70s and 80s; lowlands in the 50s and 60s. Dew points will continue to increase and further aid in RH recovery today. Before the front arrives Min RHs look to be in the 50s and 60s across the region. A few spots in the mountain valleys may briefly drop below 50% as temperatures raise today, but otherwise fire weather concerns are very minimal to nonexistent. Rain will gradually spread into the area this from west to east this afternoon. A general 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain can be expected, with locally higher amounts possible. In addition, southerly winds will increase today out ahead of the front, with gusts by late morning in the teens to lower 20s. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ/LTC FIRE WEATHER...99