920 FXUS64 KMEG 171126 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 526 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front will push through the region later today and tonight. Expect light showers today mainly east of the Mississippi River followed by clearing and cooler weather tonight. The weekend will be dry and cool with seasonable temps. Showers, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are likely early next week as low pressure tracks through the region. Dry and much colder weather will settle in for the Thanksgiving holiday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 A cold front was situated from Milwaukee, WI to Wichita, KS this morning. Meanwhile, a mid level shortwave was diving southeast into the MS River Valley. Modest large scale ascent will increase across the region this morning and showers will develop in an area of weak low level convergence generally along and east of the MS River in a moisture axis featuring PWs only around an inch. As a result, rainfall amounts will be light with most locations seeing only a few hundredths with maybe a tenth of an inch toward Paris, TN. The light showers will quickly move east toward Middle TN and north AL during the afternoon. Some additional light shower development is possible along the actual cold front that will move into northern areas late in the day and this evening. Any leftover showers will quickly move east or dissipate this evening with clearing skies from NW to SE. Cool high pressure will build in later tonight and prevail through Sunday with seasonable temps and dry weather. Sunday morning will be chilly with lows in the 30s. Active weather returns for early next week. A couple of pieces of energy will eject from the SW US bringing showers to the Mid- South Sunday night into Monday morning. By Monday afternoon into Monday night the main upper trough approaches. The system will be occluding with surface low pressure probably developing at the triple point invof the ARKLATEX. This low will likely move ENE into the Mid-South, probably across north MS, late Monday night. This will likely keep the best instability and better severe weather chances further south along the I-20 corridor as shown by the latest SLU CIPS. Of course the location of the severe weather threat is highly dependent on the low track. A slight shift north will bring the threat into north MS. This is a robust system with deep moisture available so 1 to 2 inches of rain areawide seems like a good bet with the heavier amounts where it is needed most...north MS. The main trough will push through Tuesday with surface low pressure exiting the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down by the afternoon. The departing system gets absorbed into a large upper trough centered over the Great Lakes by mid week. In its wake a cold airmass will push into the Mid-South by the middle of the week with well below normal temps. This looks like the start of a cooler than normal period that will likely extend through the end of the month. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Scattered light rain showers will continue across areas of the Mid-South east of the Mississippi River through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Current ceilings between 1500 and 2000 feet will continue into the early afternoon hours before slowly improving late this afternoon into this evening. South winds at 5 to 10 knots this morning will gradually shift to the northwest this afternoon behind the cold front. Winds will be north around 10 knots by late this evening. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ARS