839 FXUS64 KTSA 160435 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 909 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Low level moisture is starting to increase this evening, and this is likely to lead to the development of low clouds and/or fog in many areas late tonight into Thursday morning. The HRRR is showing some potential for dense fog, especially across the western part of the forecast area, but with a light south to southeast breeze continuing, not sure how widespread any dense fog will be. For now, will keep the patches/areas of fog we have in the current weather grids as is. Overnight low temperatures appear to be on track at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Above normal temps will continue Thursday with increasing winds from the south as a cold front approaches. Fire weather will be limited to some degree by both rising dew points and an overall increase in cloud cover, but a limited to elevated threat should exist across much of northeast OK, in particular the drought- stricken corridor north of roughly Bartlesville to Pawnee. Front passage Thursday night into Friday may force a a band of very light showers, but only a slim chance of anything measurable. This will also bring a modest cool down into the weekend along with a period of gusty north winds on Friday. Upper trough is expected to move into the Southern Plains by Sunday with rain chances spreading eastward during the day Sunday. Shower chances are expected to linger into Monday night at east as a closed low develops over the region and slowly drifts east. Right now the overall rain totals appear to be on the lighter side, with the possible exception of southeast OK where some embedded thunder may enhance rainfall amounts. Overall probably of 1 inch or more through the period Sunday-Monday remains less than 30%. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Not too many changes from the previous TAF package. Guidance continues to indicate advection fog developing after midnight tonight, mostly impacting KRVS, KTUL, and possibly KBVO a couple of hours on either side of sunrise Thursday. Visibilities may drop below 3SM for a couple of hours after sunrise. MVFR ceilings may develop elsewhere after midnight and persist through much of the morning and possibly into the afternoon hours, especially across the AR terminals, before VFR prevails. Otherwise, southerly winds increase and become gusty for most sites by midday; gusts up to 25 knots at times through sunset. Overall forecast confidence is low-medium right now. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 69 51 63 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 47 70 54 70 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 46 69 54 68 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 41 70 46 63 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 42 68 50 66 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 44 69 53 65 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 45 68 52 66 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 44 68 50 62 / 0 0 10 10 F10 44 68 51 66 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 68 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...67