525 FXUS61 KCLE 130613 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 113 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Quebec moves eastward through the evening. A weakening cold front crosses the region Monday. High pressure originating over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will build overhead by Tuesday then drifts to the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12:30 AM Update... The forecast remains on track overnight with no changes. 930 pm update... All remains very quiet with the weather this evening into the overnight. No forecast adjustments are needed at this time. 630 pm update... No forecast changes or adjustments were needed at this time. Previous discussion... Ridge of high pressure over the region this evening drifts to the east through the overnight allowing a weakening cold front to move into the central Great Lakes. The cold front crosses the region on Monday with a brief period of gusty westerly winds expected during the afternoon. Speeds should not exceed 25-30 mph. A few patches of middle and high level cloud cover should flow over the region through Monday. Lows tonight mostly in the upper 20's across inland locations to the upper 30's near the lakeshore. Slightly warmer on Monday with highs ranging from the low 50's across inland NW PA to near 60 across NW OH. High pressure reestablishes itself over the region Monday night. Winds become lighter with most locations seeing clear skies. This will allow temperatures to dip into the 20's. The exception looks to be across NE OH into NW PA where cloud cover may be a bit thicker. This cloud cover should be enough to keep lows in the 30's inland and near 40 along the lakeshore. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure drifting from the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes towards the Appalachians and eventually Mid Atlantic coast will be in control of the weather for this portion of the forecast. Dry conditions are expected. Other than some lingering stratocumulus off of Lake Erie into extreme Northeast OH and Northwest PA to start Tuesday, skies will be clear outside of a few cirrus clouds. Light and variable winds on Tuesday will become somewhat breezier at 7 to 15 mph out of the south-southwest for Wednesday. High temperatures will range from near 50 in Northwest PA to the upper 50s in Findlay on Tuesday, warming into the upper 50s/lower 60s for Wednesday (pushing mid 60s towards I-75 and Marion). Lows generally on either side of 30 are expected for Tuesday night, warmest near Lake Erie and coldest in our interior eastern counties. With a bit more of a gradient for Wednesday night lows look to be several degrees warmer, ranging from the 30s to lower 40s. For Wednesday, boosted high temperatures to near the 90th percentile of the National Blend of Models (NBM) and went with a mix of the deterministic NBM and 10th percentile for dew points, given recent dry weather, sunshine, and southwesterly flow supporting the warmer and drier conditions. By Wednesday, it's likely that fine fuels will be quite dry given the lack of recent rainfall and largely dormant vegetation. Minimum RH values of 30-40% and 7-15 mph winds may support brush fire spread if any fires start with the dry fuels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... South-southwest return flow behind departing high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front continues on Thursday before the cold front blasts through the area on Friday. High pressure quickly builds in behind this front for Saturday and Sunday allowing for a marginal lake effect response at most behind the front. Another warm and dry day is anticipated for Thursday. While low- level moisture begins improving a bit, elevated fire conditions remain possible as fine fuels will remain quite dry. Have 50-70% POPs for a brief period area-wide late Thursday night and Friday from west to east along the frontal passage. Models seem to be coming into better agreement on frontal timing, which should allow us to temporally hone the higher POPs and get some categorical wording (80%+) in over the next few cycles, especially from eastern OH into PA. Still am not expecting a heavy amount of QPF or other hazards with this frontal passage, with the parent trough and surface low tracking well to our north on Friday. 90th percentile QPF values (aka the "reasonable worst case") for this system from the NBM range from 0.40-0.75" across our area with current forecast values ranging from <0.10" in and around Toledo to 0.20-0.40" for the rest of northern OH and northwestern PA. However, it will become breezy along with the showers and temperatures will return closer to seasonal averages for the weekend. Am not expecting a robust lake effect response behind the front for the weekend with a fairly shallow and only marginally cold airmass, to go along with the quick return of high pressure. The ECMWF solution would quickly shut down any lake effect into Saturday, while the GFS and CMC have a somewhat deeper trough to our east which could keep nuisance showers, likely in the form of rain, going for more of the weekend across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA. While this won't be highly impactful either way, this justifies minor (30% or lower) POPs in the primary snowbelt through Sunday morning until a solution is settled upon. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure builds east into the region by tonight. However, a weak cold front will drop through the area this morning, and this will veer winds to westerly at 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots this afternoon. Winds will decrease after sunset with WNW winds of 5-10 knots expected tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Thursday night and Friday. && .MARINE... Light easterly winds over the lake this afternoon will shift southerly tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the lake during the morning and midday hours on Monday, shifting winds from south-southwest to west-northwest. The south- southwest winds ahead of the front will increase to 15-25 knots Monday morning and won't drop off much behind the front during the afternoon. The strongest winds likely occur Monday evening, as a push of stronger cold air advection occurs amid 925mb winds of 25-35 knots. Sustained winds may briefly reach 30 knots in the central and eastern basins Monday evening. Waves will begin building quickly over the open waters of the central and eastern basins Monday morning and will spread into the nearshore waters as winds turn more onshore behind the front. Waves will peak at 5 to 8 feet Monday evening across the central and eastern basins. With high pressure quickly nosing in later Monday night into Tuesday, expect winds to decrease from west to east into early Tuesday as winds shift more northerly. Winds will remain light and variable through Tuesday night before shifting to the south and increasing to 10-15 knots at times Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front passage is expected across the lake on Friday, accompanied by some increase in winds. Have posted Small Craft Advisories east of The Islands beginning Monday morning through early Tuesday morning to cover the higher winds and waves with and behind the cold front. Left off locations from The Islands points west, though winds will be close to criteria ahead of the front pre-dawn Monday and again Monday evening. Can not rule out future shifts expanding the headline if the wind forecast increases a bit more. After the current headline, the next potential for Small Craft Advisories appears to be Friday into the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin/MM SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Sullivan