955 FXUS62 KMHX 121759 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1259 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A series of waves will move along a stalled front to the south and bring rain to portions of eastern NC through Sunday. High pressure building over the area tonight will continue over the area through much of next week, bringing drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 Sunday...CAD set up continues with cool high pressure nosing into the FA from the N while Sern stream moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave aloft continues to overrun the SFC high leading to more widespread light rain. However, a low pressure wave developing along the front will come into play today. Higher coverage rainfall is currently impacting coastal regions, with isolated rainfall inland, particularly along hwy 70. An additional 0.25" of rainfall is expected along the Crystal Coast and SOBX, with lower values as you go further north. Rain fades away from NW to SE, shifting offshore through the afternoon, though lighter rain will persist near the Crystal Coast and SOBX. Cloudy, cool, and wet Sunday with MaxTs in the mid 50s most, upper 50s-near 60 in NWern- most, drier zones. Breezy conditions persist in the tightened pressure gradient between the high to the N and the offshore wave, gusty at times, particularly over the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 0330 Sunday...Drying trend through the overnight period as the shortwave aloft pushes further offshore, allowing ridging from the S to lead to more NWerly flow aloft. The low traveling along the front drags beneath the upper level shortwave, turning from NE to a more Eward motion out to sea, pulling moisture away with it. Rain is completely offshore by sunset with skies clearing from NW to SE. Winds relax and become more Nerly as the low pulls away, allowing the SFC high to build further over the FA leading to a crisp, cool overnight. Ts into the 40s around sunset in the NW spreading toward the coast with MinTs in the mid to upper 30s for interior zones, mid 40s to mid 50s beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES 1) Very dry conditions return for a few days this week 2) Watching the potential for a late-week system to bring another round of appreciable rain and possibly a few thunderstorms FORECAST DETAILS Early this week, an upper low will develop over New England, with shortwave ridging developing over the Southeast. In between the two, a deep northwesterly flow aloft will develop from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Within this regime, a very dry airmass will return to our area for a few days, with PWATs dropping back down below a half an inch. On Tuesday, in particular, modest CAA and mixing will allow dewpoints to fall into the 20s and 30s, with humidity values falling into the 30s. While the wind doesn't look too strong, this could elevate fire weather concerns some. Fortunately, this will fall on the heels of a more widespread wetting rain from today. By mid-week, a moistening return flow will develop as surface high pressure shifts offshore. This will allow a coastal trough to develop, and there may be a subtle increase in the risk of showers along the immediate coastline. However, the antecedant dry airmass and ridging aloft should tend to suppress shower activity initially, and blended QPF guidance has trended drier. Warming low-level thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will allow temps to warm back to, or above, normal. Late in the week and into next weekend, medium range guidance continue to show significant differences with the evolution of an upper low forecast to move along the Gulf Coast and out into the southwestern Atlantic, and how this will interact with a deeper trough that will be moving out of the central US. Because of the continued uncertainty, I stuck close to blended guidance for the forecast. Scenario-wise, surface low development is expected off the Southeast coast, with some guidance pulling the low up along the coast, and others taking it further out to sea. A low closer to the coast will lead to more of an impact locally, while a track further out to sea will lead to less of an impact. Either track supports at least a modest potential for our next round of rain, with the track close to the close offering the highest potential. A track closer to the coast could also open the door for a risk of thunderstorms. Temp- wise, colder air will eventually fill in, but the timing of the cooler air will depend on the track and strength of the above- mentioned surface low. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through MONDAY/... As of 0100 PM Sunday...Widespread sub-VFR are expected to continue for the next 4-6 hours for coastal terminals, with a gradual shift to VFR conditions near 00Z today. EWN and OAJ could briefly drop down to IFR over the next couple hours, leading to a TEMPO group in the EWN and OAJ TAFs for ceilings below 1000ft. After the low to our SE departs through today, clearing skies tonight with dry mid and upper levels will prime the environment for radiational cooling. Winds are expected to drop sub 7 knots early in the morning Monday with the atmosphere decoupling, leading to a fog potential 8Z-12Z tomorrow. Due to the higher rainfall totals along the coast over the past 24 hours, we have currently limited fog potential to EWN and OAJ, with MVFR conditions in the TAFs. The possibility for IFR conditions to set in do exist, but confidence is low as the fog is likely to be shallow in nature Shortly after sunrise tomorrow, any residual fog should clear up, leading to a widespread VFR day Monday. LONG TERM /Monday night through Wednesday/... As of 0100 PM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the middle of the week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through TONIGHT/... As of 0400 Sunday...Pressure gradient continues to tighten through the day today between high pressure building in from the N, the Bermuda High, and deepening wave of low pressure traveling along the stalled front to the S. Have updated all hazards with Gale Warnings in place for Central and Sern waters, as well as PamSound. All inland waters save for Pamlico and Pungo Rivers are under SCA. NEerly winds strengthen to 15-25G30kt inland with 35kt gusts over Eern portions of PamSound by mid-morning. Coastal waters 20-30G35-40kt, strongest near GStream. Winds subside after midnight, 10-20G25kt inland, 20-25G30kt coastal waters. Seas currently 4-5ft N of Oregon Inlet, 5-8ft Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, 2-4ft in the NE wind-protected nearshore Sern waters. Seas peak at 6-10ft this evening, highest near GStream, subsiding to 4-8ft by Monday morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES 1) Gradually improving boating conditions on Monday 2) Marginal SCA conditions Tuesday, with an increasing SCA risk by late-week FORECAST DETAILS High pressure building in will allow winds and seas to gradually lay down on Monday, with improving boating conditions by the afternoon. During this time, seas of 5-7 ft early Monday morning will lay down to 3-4 ft by the evening hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature high pressure inland, and a breezy offshore, northwesterly wind over area waters. A modest pressure gradient and modest mixing, especially over the warmer waters, may allow a renewed risk of 25kt winds, and seas building to 3-5 ft, with marginal SCA conditions possible. The risk of 25kt winds and 6ft+ seas may gradually increase late in the week as a surface low develops off the Southeast US coast. The track and strength of the low remains uncertain, so stay tuned for later updates. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...RM/CEB/RJ MARINE...RM/CEB