079 FXUS63 KDDC 121131 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 531 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 ...Updated for aviation discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 317 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 - Warmer than average weather is expected through this coming week. - There is a chance for rain Saturday night through Monday. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 317 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 A weak frontal boundary will stall out across Kansas this afternoon. Downslope warming above the surface overnight will mix to the surface this afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Calm winds tonight and dry air will result in temperatures falling back into the 30s, with the lowest lying areas immediately above the ground possibly falling into the upper 20s. Similar temperatures are forecast for Monday with highs in the upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 In the absence of temperature advections, Tuesday will be similar to the previous days, with highs near 70. Winds will again be 10-15 mph or less, resulting in pleasant outdoor conditions. Another warm plume will move down slope from the Rockies Tuesday night and then mix to the surface Wednesday, allowing afternoon readings to warm into the mid 70s. These mild conditions will persist Thursday with highs again well into the 70s. An upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains will push a cold front through western Kansas Thursday night, with highs Friday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. There is still a large amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the upper level pattern by next weekend. Will a storm system traverse the plains in pieces or as one large and slow moving upper level low pressure system? Given that western Kansas in the cold season is situated in the rain shadow of the Rockies, it takes a special pattern to get large amounts of precipitation this time of year. The various model ensembles continue to indicate chances for rain starting late Saturday night. The EPS 25th and 75th percentiles still indicate a third of an inch to an inch and a quarter while the GEM ensemble mean is only about a tenth of an inch. The GEFS has a tremendous range, with the 25th and 75th percentiles at .1" and 1.25" respectively. Given all the uncertainty, we will not try to get too bogged down in the fine details that will be wrong anyway given that this rain event is a week away. We do have high confidence that this will be a plain rain event given the complete lack of arctic air on the front and back sides of the storm system. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Weak surface high pressure is forecast to remain across the plains. A wind shift line will pass across southwest Kansas early this afternoon, turning the winds to light northerly. Clear skies will persist through the period with winds generally 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 32 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 70 30 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 68 30 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 69 31 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 71 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 P28 69 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Finch