292 FXUS62 KFFC 110811 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 311 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 Old frontal boundary has made it to far south GA. High pressure is centered over the Middle Atlantic with a wedge beginning to build in from the northeast. The wedge should remain in place for the remainder of the short term period. SW flow aloft will turn more zonal through Sunday. Several shortwaves are progged to move east in the flow. Each one of the waves will provide some lift for the development of rain. Several rounds are anticipated through the day on Sunday. Overall, most areas should receive half an inch or less of rainfall. However, the corridor between I-20 and MCN/CSG should be where the heavier axis sets up. Around an inch of rainfall is possible in this region. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 As rain tapers off Sunday evening, the upper level flow becomes zonal while a weak wedge becomes established along the eastern Appalachians as a result of high pressure shifting eastward over New England. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s with areas in the north Georgia mountains dipping into the 30s. Monday is forecast to be dry and warm (daytime temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s) as ridging aloft builds in over the forecast area while a deeply amplified 500mb trough develops over the southern Plains. As this wave deepens, a surface low will develop in response over the north Gulf of Mexico and will be the next weather maker for the forecast area by midweek. As the trough progresses east, a cut off low develops and the surface low over the Gulf will bring in moisture across the southeast. Showers of rain will approach from the southwest and spread northeastward beginning early Tuesday. Showers will stick with us through Thursday as the trough passes overhead with a wedge of high pressure in place. Showers produced by isentropic lift are expected to remain relatively light to moderate. The biggest change with this forecast cycle is that QPF has increased, where much of the forecast area is progged to see a range from 1.0-2.25" with the highest amounts in the Columbus area. Unfortunately, areas across far north Georgia (northwest Georgia in particular) suffering from extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) are looking to squeeze out less rainfall with this system than other locations, progged at 0.5-0.75". While any rainfall is welcome in these locations, this is not expected to replenish streams or soils enough to significantly alleviate ongoing drought conditions. Will continue to monitor future forecast cycles to assess the evolution of QPF with the system track. Temperatures generally in the 60s areawide Tuesday will trend cooler in the upper 50s and low 60s on Wednesday and Thursday for locations north of a line from Columbus to Macon within the wedge. Temperatures outside of the wedge will be running the upper 60s to low 70s. High temperatures bounce back to well above normal by Friday in the upper 60s and mid 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s at the beginning of the period will gradually warm throughout the period into the upper 40s and upper 50s. KAL && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 VFR cigs will lower to IFR over the next 2-3 hours at ATL as light rain overspreads the are from the west. On/off light rain and drizzle will be likely through the end of the TAF period. Areas of fog will also be likely for much of the period. For now have kept VSBYS in the 3-5sm range. Will monitor for the potential for lower values, but NE winds 6-8kt should limit how far vsbys drop. Speaking of winds, they should shift over to the NE within the next hour or two also. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 53 46 56 41 / 80 70 70 10 Atlanta 53 49 55 46 / 90 70 70 10 Blairsville 54 44 59 38 / 50 30 30 0 Cartersville 54 47 60 43 / 80 50 40 10 Columbus 61 52 60 50 / 80 70 70 0 Gainesville 53 48 57 44 / 80 60 60 10 Macon 57 50 57 47 / 80 70 70 0 Rome 58 49 62 43 / 60 30 30 0 Peachtree City 53 48 56 44 / 90 70 70 10 Vidalia 62 52 58 50 / 40 40 50 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...NListemaa