241 
FXUS63 KDVN 082000
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
200 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Key Message:

1) Well above normal temperatures are being seen today for some, 
with light rain showers moving through.

This Afternoon and Tomorrow...

We have quite the temperature gradient currently situated over our 
area. In our south, we have temperatures in the 70s, with those in 
our north in the upper 40s! I wonder if there is a boundary nearby?

Weak surface low follows a boundary that is draped over our southern 
half of the forecast area , bringing a dense canopy of clouds and a 
drizzle/light rain. The rain is focused north of the slowly 
advancing warm front, which will continue to shift east through the 
afternoon and early evening. Isolated embedded thunderstorms will
be possible. Light accumulations are expected, with much of the 
area seeing less than 0.10". Tonight, as the front passes through,
we will see quite the increase in winds around midnight. 
Northwesterly winds will increase, with sustained winds between 
10-20 mph, and gusts over 30 mph possible. These winds will 
lighten up near sunrise, but pick up again around noon tomorrow. 

Tomorrow will be mostly clear, but a little cooler than today for 
some. Temperatures will be in the low-mid 50s, with gusty westerly 
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Key Message:

1. Quiet, mild, and dry weather will persist through the long term.

Discussion...

As this wave passes, the region will fall under zonal flow, 
transitioning to northwest flow next week, as a ridge builds over 
the Central US/Rockies. With this, we will fall under high pressure 
and have little moisture return. Thus, much of this period will be 
dry. Sunday, guidance hints at a quick moving shortwave that will
pass through the region. This will bring in a brief period of 
moisture return, but much of the column will remain dry, hindering
any precipitation chances. This will be a beautiful stretch of 
weather, as temperatures will remain near to above normal. We will
start out with most hovering around the low 50s, but we trend 
warmer once again next week, with 50s to 60s expected throughout. 
With lacking moisture, we will also see mostly sunny skies, aside 
from Sunday, when that wave passes through. 

Enjoy this beautiful week of fall weather, folks!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

MVFR to LIFR conditions are being seen throughout the area, as a
weak surface low passes through, reducing cigs throughout. In our
north, low cigs and a mist are likely resulting in a significant 
drop in visibility, with DBQ currently reporting 1/4 SM. The low 
cigs and vis will slowly improve through the afternoon, with most 
of the area reaching VFR and nearly clear skies by 00-06z this 
evening. Currently, winds are light and variable with the surface 
low overhead. Although, just before 06z, winds will shift 
northwesterly and become gusty as the boundary passes through. 
This will only last a few hours, but we will see sustained winds 
between 10-20 KTs, and gusts upwards to 30 KTs or higher. Before 
12z tomorrow, the winds will lighten up, before picking up again 
tomorrow afternoon. 


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel