736 FXUS64 KHUN 062351 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 551 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 For early November, unseasonably warm conditions conditions prevailed over the region with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, with SW winds of 5-15 mph. Readings at Muscle Shoals and Huntsville are 81 and 79 respectively. And record highs today at both sites are 84/1914. High temperatures later today will get near record values in Muscle Shoals, and up a few more degrees elsewhere. Otherwise, dry weather will continue into tonight as high pressure to our east provides a light southerly flow. Night time lows tonight should be a tad milder than last night ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 A warmer than normal trend will continue through the middle of the week. Highs on Tue/Wed should warm into the lower 80s. Lows in this period will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tue night, and even milder Wed night in the mid 50s to mid 60s. For reference, record highs for this period that could be tied or exceeded include: Muscle Shoals Huntsville Tue 84/1915 82/2022 Wed 84/2005 84/2022 Thu 81/2020 80/2005 The warm spell will come to an end on Thursday, as a system now moving ESE off of the Pacific NW coast heads across the Continental Divide and nears the Southeast after midweek. Have stayed with mainly lower end rain chances (20-30%) Thu afternoon mainly over our middle Tennessee group and northern Alabama west of I-65. Even with the shower chances increasing, still have highs Thu in the mid/upper 70s (which will be a close call regarding record highs - why Thu was included in the table). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 Even better rain chances are forecast Thu night through Fri as a cold front associated with this system sweeps towards the area. Have medium to high rain chances late Thu night into Fri (40-80%). Much needed rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch looks probable from the newer guidance. Although this amount of rain will have minimal effects on the on-going drought, it will be better than none. With clouds and good rain chances, cooler conditions on Fri with highs in the low/mid 60s. A cold front with this system should sweep across the area during Fri. Post frontal rain from this system should end from west to east late Fri night into Sat morning. Drier air will filter in, with showers ending by Sat afternoon. High temperatures for Veterans Day will only warm into the lower 60s. The above noted cold front should become stationary to our south, then head northward as a warm front early next week. The return of this front should bring more lower end chances of showers (20-30%) on Sun. The better rain chances will be higher more to our south, closer to a passing area of low pressure. The ECMWF was picking up on this more than the GFS this go around. Showers in either solution should end by early Mon. Highs in the Sun/Mon timeframe should be in the low/mid 60s, or close to seasonable norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 VFR/SKC conditions will persist at the MSL/HSV terminals early this evening, with a gradual increase in Ci expected later tonight in the flow downstream from a trough approaching the Pacific coast. Regardless of the coverage of high clouds, lgt/vrbl-calm flow will support the development of patchy BR/FG as dewpoint depressions begin to fall below 5 degrees (perhaps as early as 4-5Z), and we have included a TEMPO group for MVFR vsby reductions at both airports btwn 10-13Z. A few fair-weather Cu will be possible from late Tuesday morning thru the aftn hours, along with a SW wind of 5-10 knots (and occasional gusts up to 15 knots). && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...70/DD