560 FXUS61 KAKQ 060233 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 933 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region early this week leading to continued dry and mild conditions. A weak front drops south into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, leading to slightly cooler conditions on Wednesday due to onshore flow. The front lifts back to the north of the region as a warm front on Thursday. A stronger cold front approaches Thursday and crosses the region on Friday. High pressure returns for the first part of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 930 PM EST Sunday... Temperatures have dropped off rather quickly this evening as expected with clear skies and surface high pressure building toward the area. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight, and we will again be watching the potential for some patchy ground fog near the coast early Monday AM. However, there looks to be less potential tonight compared to what we saw this morning. Lows will generally range from the upper 30s-lower 40s inland to the upper 40s to around 50 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... High pressure settles back over the area Monday, as the next system (a strong low ~995mb), tracks east from the northern Great Lakes on Monday and into southern Quebec Monday night. Mostly sunny on Monday with highs again in the mid/upper 60s to around 70F (lower 70s far SE), and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions continue into Tuesday with high pressure remaining in control. Temperatures look to warm up into the mid 70s to possibly upper 70s in spots as the low level W-SW flow increases with the low to our N shifting off to northern New England and eventually Atlantic Canada. By Tuesday night, a weak (dry) cold front tries to drop south across the region. Lows Tuesday night will again generally range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Slightly cooler Wednesday, especially across the Eastern Shore and along the coast due to an onshore wind. Highs range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland (mid 70s far S and SW) to the mid 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... Models have started to come in slightly better agreement regarding the late-week timeframe. Low pressure (weak) slides north of the area on Thursday, with the 12z/05 GFS having the low over southern Canada, while the the 12z/05 ECMWF has the low moving over NJ. This will keep dry conditions for the local area on Thursday with strong southerly flow. Current forecast is close to the NBM which is for highs 75-80F area-wide (10-15 degrees above normal), and this may be close to record highs which are mostly in the lower 80s. The cold front associate with the low pressure is forecasted to become nearly parallel to the mid/upper flow, and as such it will likely take awhile for the boundary to drop through the region Friday into Friday night. PoPs ~40% area-wide on Friday into Friday night, with rain showers coming to an end Saturday AM. Cooler Friday, though high temperatures will depend on the timing of the front. For now, did not stray too far from the NBM which shows highs in the upper 50s NW to the lower 70s SE. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the upper 30s NW to the mid-upper 40s SE. Cooler and dry conditions Saturday into Sunday with high pressure building back into the area. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 650 PM EST Sunday... Mainly VFR/dry with high clouds and light winds through the 00z/06 TAF period. Not expecting as much fog tonight as there was last night, but could still see a few hours worth of patchy ground fog at ECG and potentially PHF. Any fog quickly burns off by 13z. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail through the middle of the week other than patchy ground fog overnight and early in the morning each day. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... Marine conditions are benign this afternoon as sfc high pressure settles in over local waters and a coastal trough moves further offshore. N-NE winds are light, generally 5kt or less. Seas are 3- 4ft and waves are 1ft or less (2ft in mouth of the bay). High pressure will remain in control overnight, sliding east to sit over the East Coast by tomorrow afternoon. As the high slides E, winds will take on more of an easterly component at 5-10kt. Given onshore wind direction, seas will stay around 3ft. Winds and seas increase Monday night, becoming SW 10-15 kt into Tue morning ahead of our next cold front. Gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower James and middle/upper Bay, with in-house wind probs now showing 40-60% probabilities for gusts to low-end SCA thresholds. The weakening cold front drops across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a brief and (likely weak) surge of NNE winds dropping across the local waters Wed morning, before winds quickly return to the SSW Wed night and Thu. A second, stronger front then looks to cross the area Friday/Friday night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB/ERI SHORT TERM...AJB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/ERI MARINE...AM