130 FXUS61 KRLX 040801 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 340 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Trending warmer today through the weekend, with clouds returning tonight. Becoming more unsettled next week, as a series of weather systems waver a front about the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Saturday... Mostly quiet and dry for this near-term period. GOES-16 obs shows scattered to broken high-level and upper mid-level clouds drifting over the region from the west. Mostly in the form of fair weather cirrus clouds. High pressure continues to keep a hold on the region, with the sfc pressure center located over the GA/NC/SC Tri-State area. There is a slow-moving cold front to the west over the Great Lakes region which will gradually make its way to our area by the end of the near term. Another cold morning on the way though not nearly as cold as previous mornings. Light to moderate frost will be likely this morning, especially in the southern mountains/lowlands and the metro valley. Thinking central guidance is too warm with the temperatures, as has been the trend the past couple of mornings. Low temperatures this morning should be in the low to mid 30s across the lowlands; 30s and upper 20s across the mountains. Most areas have decoupled, except for the higher ridges. Due to a mostly SW'rly wind component, winds will be existent though light above 2,500 and 3,000 feet. This and a stout inversion will moderate temperatures along the higher elevations this morning, so areas such as Snowshoe, Kumbrabow and the Cool Ridge/Ghent area will be warmer than the mountain and lowland valleys by sunrise. Eastern Pocahontas County looks to be the coldest spot this morning, as the lee side of the Alleghenies have completely decoupled and multiple spots have already dropped into the upper 20s. Today looks to be another fair day with passing high-level clouds and some breezy winds along the Ohio River Valley due to afternoon mixing. Afternoon RHs look to be dry again, but not as dry as previous days with values between 30-45%. High temperatures will be around average to slightly above across the region with the lowlands seeing low to mid 60s this afternoon; while the mountains will be anywhere between the upper 40s to low 60s. Moisture profiles increase in the upper and mid-levels tonight into Sunday, as aforementioned cold front inches closer to the region though PoPs remain low at 5-12%. This moisture will likely just present itself as clouds filtering through between 9PM tonight and 7AM Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... High pressure enters the area Sunday, and then exits Sunday night, yielding to a return south to southwest flow of milder air. This resumes the warming trend temporarily stunted by the cold front crossing early Sunday morning. By Tuesday morning, there may be enough moisture streaming northeast into the area to squeeze out light rain showers ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. Forcing is weak amid zonal mid level flow, as the driving short wave trough scoots across the Great Lakes and northeastern states. Central guidance reflects near normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night climbing above normal for Monday and Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM Saturday...Corrected last paragraph A weak cold front sinks into the area and then stalls Tuesday, as the driving mid-level trough scoots well off to the northeast, leaving zonal flow nearly parallel to the front. A small chance for showers lingers Tuesday through Tuesday night, mainly across northern portions of the area, where the front is most likely to stall. The next southern stream short wave trough is likely to generate cyclogenesis over the center of the CONUS midweek. The front lifts north as a warm front as the low moves into the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. The low then drags the front back down as a cold front as it moves into the Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday. Central guidance has not yet quite resolved much of a break as the front lifts north midweek, but showers are likely as the cold front comes through on Thursday. The weather for the remainder of the week depends upon the interaction of the northern and southern streams, with additional short wave troughs in each conspiring to set up transient troughing over the eastern CONUS. An additional low pressure wave may cross over or just south of the area Friday, if a southern stream short wave is able to sneak across before a northern stream short wave digs southeastward across the Great Lakes, driving the baroclinic zone farther south. This will also modulate timing and and extent of upslope precipitation in northwest flow between exiting low pressure, and high pressure building in over the midwest, heading into next weekend. This could include snow across the higher elevations in a pacific- polar hybrid air mass. Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures through Thursday, with the departure possibly exceeding 10 degrees F on Wednesday, before dropping back below normal to end the work week, and begin next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 AM Saturday... VFR conditions through today and into tonight under influence of high pressure. SCT to BKN cirrus will filter through the region, most notably along the northern fringes of the area (PKB and CKB). Winds will generally be out of the southwest through the period, with a few gusts possible along the Ohio lowlands and Ohio River Valley during mixing time (~16-22Z). FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts may vary from forecast this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 11/04/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions are not anticipated at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... This afternoon's RH values look to be in the 30-45% range across most of the forecast area, which is dry, but not as dry as previous days. Southwesterly winds will be light between 5-10 MPH, but a few gusts in the teens are possible across Ohio and the Ohio River Valley late this morning and early afternoon due to mixing. This will not be a widespread occurrence and criteria is not met to warrant any fire weather headlines at this time. Nonetheless, check local burn laws and exercise caution with outdoor burning this afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...LTC FIRE WEATHER...LTC