302 FXUS64 KHUN 031741 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1241 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 A light SE flow was in place over the Tennessee Valley, thanks to a flow rounding surface high pressure now situated over the eastern CONUS. After another chilly night with lows in the lower 20s to mid 30s, 9 AM temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 40s under sunny skies. With sunny skies continuing, high temperatures later today should rise into the mid 60s, with southerly winds of 5-10 mph. A main concern today will be low relative humidity values reduced into the low/mid 20s percent range over much of the area this afternoon. Sustained winds remaining under 15 mph should preclude critical fire weather concerns. That said, the on-going drought has resulted in abnormally dry fuels, with elevated fire spread and growth potential continuing. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 Little change in the overall wx pattern is expected going into the upcoming weekend period, as high pressure builds more into the SE region, while the weak upper trough axis moves further to the east. Overnight temps into early Sat look to trend a few degrees warmer compared to the frigid temps this last few nights, with lows more in the mid 30s/near 40F. Unseasonably dry conditions will then prevail thru the weekend, with highs Sat/Sun climbing mainly into the lower 70s/near 70F. Minimum RH values this weekend also look to stay just above 30 percent, with light sfc winds turning more to the west. This will again offset the need for any Red Flag products, but an elevated fire danger risk will linger into the new week. Lows into early Mon also look to trend more in the mid/upper 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 High pressure will be positioned over the Western Atlantic and mostly zonal flow will persist aloft through the beginning of the next work week. With the eventual return of southerly flow, will see an increase in temps each day through Wednesday, with highs reaching near or to the 80s by Tuesday. Will remain dry through Wednesday, but increasing moisture should help to mitigate some of the wildfire concern. Overnight lows will be in the 50s each night. Our next chance for rain will come late Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary nears the area. With limited moisture and weak synoptic forcing, have stuck with low to medium (20-40%) PoPs through Thursday. Unfortunately, no beneficial rain looks to be in sight through the remainder of the long term forecast, so continue to obey local burn bans. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023 VFR conditions should continue into Sat. A southerly flow of 5-10kt this afternoon should become SE towards sunset, then light/variable tonight. Light southerly winds around 5kt are expected a couple of hours after sunrise Sat morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB