101 FXUS61 KAKQ 021620 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1220 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the region through the weekend. Overnight low temperatures will drop below freezing for most of the region tonight into early Friday morning before warming back above normal for high temperatures later this weekend and into early next week. Passing weather systems may try to make their way into our area by mid- week, though confidence remains low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1155 AM EDT Thursday... The latest WX analysis shows a strong surface high pressure (1034mb) along the mid-Atlantic and southeast coastal plain. Other than a few clouds just west of the Bay and near the ocean in NE NC, skies are mainly sunny. It remains chilly, with temperatures mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The high will move very little this aftn and will remain over the region tonight. Highs this aftn in the low-mid 50s area-wide under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures early this morning bottomed out in the low-mid 20s well inland, and in the mid/upper 20s to lower from the I-95 corridor east to about 20miles inland from the Bay/coast. Close to the coast and across the eastern shore, min temperatures were generally in the mid/upper 30s, with 40s at the immediate coast in SE VA/NE NC. Have ended the growing season for inland areas, amounting to about 2/3 of the CWA (see latest PNSAKQ for details). Where the growing season remain active, have issued a new set on Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories to account for the cold tonight/early Fri. Overall, went a few degrees below NBM values for lows tonight given high confidence that the sfc high will remain strong tonight (~1031-1033mb) and will be centered overhead, providing less wind near the coast than what occurred last night/early this morning. Frost formation will also be better tonight given the light wind/decoupling along with slightly higher dew pts near the coast. Lows tonight in the mid/upper 20s for most inland areas (but without headlines since the growing season has ended), with upper 20s to lower 30s and Freeze Warnings for areas that are closer to the coast (but where a majority of the zone is >5 miles from the immediate shore/coastline). For places where the majority of the zone is located within 5 miles of the water, including Norfolk/Portsmouth, Va Beach, Northampton VA, and Currituck NC (minus the NC Outer Banks), a Frost Advisory has been issued with expected min temperatures of 33-37F (even though within a 1/2 mile or so of the water, min temperatures will likely remain around 40F). The only zone that remains active with no headline will be the NC Outer Banks Currituck w/ lows 40F or above. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure remains in control Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be able to finally moderate more on Friday, allowing highs to warm to the lower 60s for most locations. Still cold/a bit below normal for lows Fri night, though readings should stay above freezing for most locations, with the exception of the typical colder rural spots along and W of the I-95 corridor that may touch the freezing mark or just below. A weak surface trough/low off the Carolina coast may bring in some cloud cover to the SE zones on Saturday. Otherwise, benign conditions continue. Expect highs to top out a few degrees above normal on Saturday, ranging from the the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... South/southwesterly surface flow continues for Sunday and Monday allowing temperatures to warm to into the lower 70s. Clouds will be on the increase on Sunday as a shortwave skirts across the region. The GFS is trying to push a weak boundary ashore ahead of the shortwave during the day on Sunday bringing in light rain showers to coastal locations. The Euro keeps things just off the coastline. For now, left the forecast as cloudy, warm, and dry for Sunday. A weather system will move across the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast Monday into Tuesday. Models are currently trending drier for our area, cutting most of the moisture off at the mountains. Nevertheless, expect more clouds on Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s, and even mid 70s across northeast NC. Another system may try to move through for mid-week, though confidence is currently low. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 615 AM EDT Thursday... VFR and SKC conditions will prevail through the period with high pressure in place. Bay streamer cumulus will linger into the morning hours before dissipating by the early afternoon. These clouds may impact ORF and ECG occasionally with FEW-SCT050 CIGs. NW winds will remain light inland, with a gusts to 15-20kt subsiding along the coast through the morning. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the week and into the weekend as high pressure remains in control of the local weather. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure is centered just inland across WV and western VA early this morning, leading to northerly winds across area waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all local waters, but will end this morning. The center of high pressure will move closer to the coast today, and as a result, winds will quickly decrease this morning. By this afternoon, winds will be N 5-10 kt and further decrease through the afternoon and evening. Waves and seas will also be decreasing through the day today. Seas will go from 4-6 ft this morning to 2-4 ft by this evening, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay will decrease from 3-5 ft this morning to around 1 ft this evening. Much calmer conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next week. The high pressure will remain centered near the Mid- Atlantic coast through the weekend. Winds will be calm-10 kt through the period. Seas will be 2-3 ft and waves in the bay around 1 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>025. NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ015-016-031-032. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ017. VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ077-078-084>086-097-099-523>525. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ095-098-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...JKP MARINE...CP