315 FXUS62 KRAH 291847 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will hold over the Southeast U.S. through the weekend. A cold front will approach central NC from the west on Monday and move through the Carolinas Monday evening through Monday night. Cold high pressure will build in for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 905 AM Sunday... Forecast is on track, with no major changes with this mornings update. Near record high temperatures are still expected to occur this afternoon with the Triad nearing 84 degrees and Triangle and Sandhills regions nearing 86 degrees. This afternoon winds will be mainly light, generally a SW wind of 5-10 mph with some infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph at times. As of 210 AM Sunday... Near record high temperatures are expected today with a very similar airmass still in place and minimal clouds. Aloft, the mid-level anomalous ridge will continue to extend into the area from northern FL. Meanwhile, to the west, a trough axis stretching from the upper Mississippi valley into the central Plains will reach the Mid-Mississippi valley and Great Lakes by early Mon. This setup will keep central NC in that warm southwest flow. At the surface, high pressure will remain situated over the southwest Atlantic, while a lee Appalachian trough stays in place. With little change in the airmass, see no reason why we should not be the same or a degree higher with high temperatures this afternoon. We are expecting highs 15-20 degrees above average in the low to middle 80s, highest over the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. Greensboro, Raleigh, and Fayetteville may all break or tie their record highs (see climate section). Tonight, a strong cold front over the MS and OH valleys will reach central/eastern KY/TN/WV. A surface low tracking into southeastern PA should keep SSW flow in place, promoting yet another warm night in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... As the the leading northern stream s/w aloft moves eastward through the Great Lakes and Northeast Mon/Mon night another, stronger s/w will drop through the northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley. The leading s/w will help the leading edge of the longwave trough gradually push eastward to over the region through Mon night. At the surface, the trough will strengthen over central NC on Mon as the low lifts quickly NE along the Northeast US coast and the cold front quickly approaches from the west. Meanwhile, model consensus still has a low tracking northwestward over the Caribbean, just to the northeast of the Bahamas through Mon night. Highs Mon are still expected to be about 15 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 80s. The timing of the cold front moving into central NC from the NW still looks like Mon evening, then pushing quickly through the area Mon night, while the low remains generally NNE of the Bahamas. The cold front and the low will quickly approach one another off the Southeast US coast Mon night. there will be an initial surge of much cooler air into the area from the north late Mon night. Lows Mon night will depend on timing of the fropa and onset of the anafrontal rain, but with latest guidance suggesting rain may begin as early as midnight across the north, generally expect mid 40s north to mid 50s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... While the cold front will be off the North Carolina coast by Tuesday morning, the associated rain will be well to the west. Went ahead and added some likely pops along the VA/NC border Tuesday afternoon, keeping 30-50% chances elsewhere through the afternoon into the early evening. Although the chance of rain remains in the forecast Tuesday evening, the forecast should dry out late Tuesday night. The NBM seems to be optimistic with its temperatures Tuesday, so blended in some of the NBM 10th percentile hourly temperatures. While there could be some minimal temperatures rises after sunrise, it appears that temperatures will generally fall through much of the daytime, meaning that there is a very good chance that high temperatures for the calendar day will occur at or slightly after midnight. Continued to undercut temperatures Tuesday night, and this should result in widespread 30s for lows, with isolated locations in the Triad falling below freezing. By Wednesday, a sprawling surface high should cover the eastern half of the United States, except for weak low pressure over the Northeast, and by Thursday the Northeast low will have moved offshore. This should result in a relatively quiet weather pattern for North Carolina with dry weather expected. Temperatures should moderate through the period as the westerly upper level flow eventually takes on more of a southerly component. However, Wednesday night still appears likely to be the coldest night so far this season, with below freezing temperatures expected northwest of US-1 (except for the immediate Triangle metro area), with at least a 50 percent chance of below freezing temperatures southeast of US-1. Some locations will likely fall below freezing again Thursday night across the northern half of the forecast area, then lows should remain above freezing through the rest of the forecast period. Highs should rise from the upper 40s/lower 50s Wednesday to the mid 60s/mid 70s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. A shallow cumulus field has developed this afternoon across the southeastern portion of the CWA but is expected clear up later this afternoon and early evening. A few areas are reporting gusts 15-20kts but winds are generally southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots across the region. After sunset, expect winds to decrease to nearly calm conditions. By morning winds will pick up aloft, not mixing down until late Monday morning. With this, LLWS is’nt out of the question, especially at KRDU and KRWI. Confidence was too low to put in TAFs, and will look at newer model guidance that come in tonight for the 00z TAFs. By mid/late morning winds aloft will mix down and ahead of the incoming cold front winds will pick up again with W/SW winds of 10 to 15 kts, and gusts of 15-20kts Monday afternoon. Outlook: A cold front is expected to bring showers and sub-VFR conditions to the region as early as late Monday night and into Tuesday. As the cold front passes Tuesday, expect VFR conditions to return early Wednesday and continue through the week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 29: KGSO: 84/1927 KRDU: 83/1950 KFAY: 85/2020 October 30: KGSO: 84/2016 KRDU: 86/1996 KFAY: 87/1950 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 30: KRDU: 65/1918 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: November 1: KGSO: 45/1925 KRDU: 50/1925 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...CA/Kren SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Kren CLIMATE...RAH