332 
FNUS75 KGJT 261957
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Big Creek Piles RX...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
157 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on October 27. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry and cool conditions will occur Friday with
breezy conditions as the area will be in between storm systems.
Deeper mixing and very good smoke dispersal is expected Friday.
Clouds and showers will increase Friday evening, with heavy snow
possible through the day Saturday. The cold front will move
through Saturday evening with much colder conditions Saturday
night into Sunday behind the system. Total snow accumulations are
forecasted to be above a foot from Friday night through Sunday 
morning as this location remains higher in elevation on the Mesa.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). 
CWR.................0 percent. 
Max temperature.....36-41. 
Min humidity........55-60 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph until 1000, then
                    increasing 18 to 22 mph with gusts to 30 mph
                    in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to very good in the afternoon. 
Haines Index........3 or very low. 
LAL.................1. 
Mixing height.......Increasing to 4500 ft AGL by mid afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 24 mph. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of snow showers 
                    in the evening, then snow showers likely and 
                    slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. 
CWR.................70 percent. 
Min temperature.....26-31. 
Max humidity........95-100 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11000-34000 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 or very low. 
LAL.................1 until 2400, then 2. 
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 1900 ft AGL or less overnight. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 mph. 

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy blowing snow 
                    through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms 
                    in the morning. Snow showers through the day. 
                    Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
CWR.................80 percent. 
Max temperature.....27-32. 
Min humidity........94-99 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning 
                    and afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34000-37000 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 or very low. 
LAL.................2 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4 until 
                    1500, then 3. 
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2500 ft AGL by mid afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 mph. 

$$
Forecaster...Matt Aleksa
Requested by...Lucas Baier
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2323300.4/GJT
.DELDT 10/26/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lucas.baier@usda.gov