468 FXUS62 KMFL 251607 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1207 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 The dominant upper level ridging continues across southeastern US and does not show any signs of weakening much the remainder of this week. Therefore, while the predominantly dry conditions are likely to continue, a few gusty showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The onshore flow does not have much moisture or instability to work with. The precipitable water in this morning's sounding was only 0.99". Therefore, the only activity on the radar has been fast moving and likely a drizzle, if any. No accumulative rainfall thus far today. An enhanced pressure gradient will result in breezy NE/ENE winds, especially along the east coast. Peak sustained winds have been 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid-80s this afternoon with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s. Only exception will be slightly warmer lows along the east coast due to warm Atlantic waters and breezy overnight winds. Tomorrow will be another round of predominately dry and breezy conditions. The likelihood for an occasional drizzle or light rain is not looking favorable - much better chance for all dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures reaching the mid 80s with slightly warmer temps in SW FL. Winds will be breezy, out of the east-northeast, but slightly weaker. Sustained speeds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 The pattern for the long term remains consistent with the deep ridge maintaining its presence over the Eastern Seaboard and surface high around the Mid-Atlantic region. Subsidence from the persistent synoptic feature will help to keep a thick layer of dry air in place for the mid-to-upper levels and in turn hampers shower development. No fronts or trough shortwaves will be able to penetrate into the area still either until the ridge finally weakens at some point next week, perhaps as early as Monday but there is uncertainty currently with that. Therefore, with the stronger gradient persisting from the high over us to the low pressure offshore and enough low level moisture, we will continue to see gusty winds in the 20-30mph range and widely scattered or isolated showers from coastal convergence. Those showers will be quick-moving, brief and light. through the weekend and possibly even early next week. Temperatures each day will continue to be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with highs in the mid 80s over the east coast and upper 80s over the west coast/interior. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s near the lake to the low to mid 70s near the east coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Breezy NE/ENE winds will continue throughout the TAF period with VFR conditions expected. Wind gusts have potential to reach 20-25 KT, especially in the afternoon. Isolated SHRA may materialize across the east coast of South Florida in the early afternoon. However, due to isolated coverage and quick movement, it has not been included in eastern TAF site forecasts with little-to-no expectation to impact vis or cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Hazardous marine conditions will continue at least through today and Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic waters until 8pm Thursday with seas of 7-9ft and sustained winds in the 15-25KT with gusts as high as 30-35KT. An extension of the advisories in the Atlantic and Gulf waters will be possible, but are not imminent at this time. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1158 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Gusty onshore winds will continue through the remainder of the week. High risk for rip currents will continue for several more days. Additionally, rough surf continues for the east coast beaches through Thursday. The approaching full moon/perigee, combined with increased water levels due to the strong easterly flow, will bring a threat for tidal flooding along the east coast. This threat will likely peak in the late week/early weekend period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 75 84 75 / 20 20 20 20 West Kendall 85 72 85 72 / 20 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20 Homestead 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 84 75 / 20 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 85 75 / 20 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 84 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 83 74 84 74 / 20 10 10 10 Boca Raton 85 75 85 75 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 88 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Simmons LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Simmons