002 FXUS63 KDDC 230546 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 - Very mild lows the next two mornings - Very warm Monday then trending colder end of month - Chance of rain/storms still trending SE Tuesday/Wednesday && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday morning) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 A quiet weather night is on tap across southwest Kansas. A weak 30-40 kt LLJ will develop through the overnight hours. This will lead to elevated winds continuing through the overnight. As such, very mild lows are expected across the CWA/FA. Currently, have half the CWA/FA in the 50s and the other half in the 60s for lows. For Monday, continued WAA prevails upstream of a UL trof out west. The net result is that the warm sector completely clears north of the FA. As such, expect very warm highs tomorrow with values in the upper 80s to around 90F. Sfc lee troughing ahead of the UL feature will result in breezy southerly winds through the day. Even with the winds, afternoon relative humidity is not expected to bottom out to Red Flag criteria. Elevated fire danger conditions will be likely, but not at critical fire danger levels. Another 40 kt or so LLJ will develop through the overnight hours Monday evening into Tuesday morning. It will be the same story again with very mild lows in the 50s and 60s. Any precipitation potential will be relegated to the long term. This is confirmed by EC ens probabilities of >0.01" does not really ramp up across the SE counties until later in the day Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 There has been a trend in both the deterministic models as well as the ensemble members to shift the precipitation axis farther SE. This is also reflected in the output of the NBM, which has come in with lower pops and lower QPF. In fact, the EC ens probabilities of >0.01" is only maxed out at 60 to 80% across the SE counties Tuesday and Wednesday. It's just another case of the FA getting dryslotted. With the trend, will continue the highest pops and QPF across the SE counties. The rest of the FA most likely won't see much in the way of showers and storms. The second trend I've been watching is the colder solution trend Friday with a secondary cooler surge next Sunday. Exact frontal positions with the two surges are still a bit uncertain. The EC ens probabilities is picking up on this colder solution though with 80 to 100% probabilities of <40F around 30 October. The NBM is also in agreement with lows in the 20s during this period. It is unclear and uncertain how long this cold airmass will be in place. Both the GFS and EC ensembles keep it around through the end of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current south to south-southeast winds in the 12-14 kt range will continue until around 14Z Monday morning when a substantial increase in winds will take place. Expect southerly winds sustained in the 18-22 kt range with gusts up to 28-32 kts from mid-morning Monday through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 91 59 78 / 10 0 10 10 GCK 50 89 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 51 89 53 81 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 53 90 55 79 / 0 0 0 10 HYS 54 90 60 78 / 10 0 0 10 P28 61 90 63 74 / 10 0 30 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Springer