663 FXUS64 KEPZ 221728 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 We will see plenty of sun and have very warm temperatures today and Monday. Then on Tuesday and Wednesday we will see cooler high temperatures and a good chance for rain. We will be drier and warmer for the end of the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 The high clouds that were associated with the remnants of Hurricane Norma are quickly pushing to the east this morning and that will give us mostly sunny skies and our high temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above average. On Monday we will see our upper level flow transition to a southwest flow in response to an approaching upper level trough. This trough will be dropping south through California on Monday, into northern Mexico. By Monday night the upper level trough will begin to tap into some moisture and bring a chance for rain to locations along the NM/AZ border. Then as the trough drifts eastward across northern Mexico on Tuesday, we will see rain chances spread across the whole area. We will see a good chance for off and on rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms during the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Previous runs of the ECMWF model had the low stalling just to the southwest of our region and giving us good chances of rain well into Wednesday. But the latest run of the ECMWF is more in line with the progressive GFS and pushes the trough steadily across the region on Wednesday. Like I mentioned, we will have a good chance for rain on Tuesday and there may be some lingering showers with the trough passage on Wednesday. For Thursday through next weekend we will be dry with a southwest flow aloft. Our high temperatures today and Monday will run 5 to 10 degrees above average, then as the clouds and rain chances arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday we will see high temperature running a few degrees below average. But our cooler temperatures won't last long, as the a warm southwest flow for the end of the week will start a warming trend so that by next weekend, our highs will be back to 5 to 10 degrees above average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 VFR conditions with light winds, generally 5 to 10 kts this afternoon from the south to southwest becoming light and variable overnight. SKC- SCT250 through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 We will be warm and dry for today and Monday and then starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday, we will have a good chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Min RH's today will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in the mountains. Then for Monday through at least Friday, we will see min RH's above 20% across the region. Winds for the next 5 days will stay below critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 88 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 40 Sierra Blanca 78 56 75 53 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 85 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 40 Alamogordo 83 55 81 53 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 62 41 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 Truth or Consequences 84 53 80 55 / 0 0 0 30 Silver City 79 52 76 50 / 0 0 20 60 Deming 87 51 83 55 / 0 0 10 50 Lordsburg 84 52 83 52 / 0 0 20 60 West El Paso Metro 86 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 40 Dell City 85 54 81 56 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 85 58 83 56 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 79 55 76 54 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 87 59 83 58 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 84 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 40 White Sands HQ 85 59 83 58 / 0 0 0 40 Jornada Range 84 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 40 Hatch 87 51 84 56 / 0 0 0 40 Columbus 85 54 83 56 / 0 0 10 40 Orogrande 83 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 30 Mayhill 75 46 71 45 / 0 0 10 20 Mescalero 73 45 70 43 / 0 0 10 20 Timberon 71 43 68 43 / 0 0 10 20 Winston 79 43 74 44 / 0 0 10 30 Hillsboro 84 50 80 50 / 0 0 10 40 Spaceport 83 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 40 Lake Roberts 79 45 75 43 / 0 0 20 50 Hurley 83 50 80 50 / 0 0 20 60 Cliff 85 48 83 48 / 0 0 20 50 Mule Creek 80 51 78 49 / 0 0 20 40 Faywood 82 52 79 53 / 0 0 10 50 Animas 84 53 83 52 / 0 0 20 60 Hachita 84 52 83 52 / 0 0 20 50 Antelope Wells 84 54 81 52 / 0 0 10 50 Cloverdale 80 53 76 50 / 0 0 20 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice