468 FXUS61 KCLE 202333 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and associated cold front pulls away from the area tonight. Another cold front will sweep southeastward across our area later Saturday through Saturday night, followed by a residual trough on Sunday morning. High pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday before departing to the east coast on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 630 PM Update... Slight adjustments were made to the timing of the end of precipitation this evening, especially across the western counties which have already seen much of the precipitation end. There remains a non-zero chance of a few, light pop-up showers, but nothing more widespread is expected until Saturday afternoon. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged with this update. Previous Discussion... Scattered to numerous showers are observed on radar underneath a large and expansive upper-level trough. This should give way to lake effect showers tonight through Saturday afternoon for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, another mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will move southeast across the area, bringing another shot of rain showers across the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Downward trend in temperatures is expected with temperatures further decreasing below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s (though may see some upper 30s in northwest and central part of Ohio). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The last trough to rotate around the the upper level low over the NE US should cross the region Sunday with some enhancement to the lake effect showers that gradually decreases in coverage across NE OH and NW PA through Sunday afternoon. High pressure then takes control with much colder temperatures expected by Monday morning. A large portion of the area should see a killing frost and/or a freeze. High pressure moves east of the region by Monday afternoon with southerly winds increasing. This will be the beginning of our warming trend. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... There will be increased warm advection Tuesday into Wednesday with showers possible across the northern half of the CWA, especially Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front lingering near or just to the north of the area. There is alot of uncertainty on timing and location of this boundary among all the models. So for now will carry some low chances that start Tuesday night and continue through Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be the warm days of the long term with 60's to mid 70's possible. The higher end all hinging on the amount of cloud cover across the region. Slightly cooler Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Scattered rain showers continue to push east this evening along I71 and east. In the wake of these showers, ceilings have begun to fall to MVFR. That trend will persist to the east, with some terminals possibly dropping to even IFR overnight. The best chance of any IFR conditions tonight will be at KCAK and KMFD starting at 03Z, but should recover to MVFR heights near sunrise Saturday. In addition, showers will transition to be lake enhanced later tonight, primarily impacting KERI, KYNG, and KCLE. In heavier areas of precipitation visibilities may also be reduced to MVFR distances, although not expecting this to be widespread. By Saturday morning, western TAF sites should briefly improve to VFR conditions ahead of another approaching low pressure system. Some VFR may briefly sneak in for central terminals as well, although the time frame for this occurring will be much shorter. Opted to include this rebound in the TAFs for KCLE, KCAK, KMFD and KYNG, but will need to monitor trends in precipitation for any potential shift. As mentioned, another low pressure moves through the area late Saturday, so opted to introduce -SHRA at the tail end of most TAFs. Winds through this periods will primarily be out of the west- northwest at 5-12 knots, gusting locally up to 20 knots. The exception to this is KERI which will have enhanced winds off Lake Erie of 10-15 knots, gusting up to 30 knots late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Outlook...Isolated to scattered lake effect rain showers expected Saturday night and Sunday for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered rain showers are possible on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Cold front will move across the through the evening with winds increasing in the cold advection in its wake. We have expanded the small craft advisory to the western basin through tomorrow morning. For the central and eastern basin of the lake winds likely have a brief decrease in winds ahead of the next cold front that crosses the lake Saturday evening. We have opted to just extend the central and eastern portion of the small craft advisory to remain in effect through Sunday evening. We have need to add the western basin in again for a few hours Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds decrease Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds overhead. As the high moves east of the lake winds increase from a southerly direction Monday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ145>148. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...MM